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FINAL+3BOS
KC

KC

56-57

5
8
BOS

BOS

63-51

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
37,585 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

KC 5 · BOS 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0001000405
BOS501100108

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    79
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 96
    135
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    77
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    285
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    132
    14(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 93
    266
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Kansas City Royals, 8–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC56-57
5
8
BOS63-51
KC56-57·BOS63-51
KC

KC

56-57

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-33000022
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44020011
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-55111101
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-55121101
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-55110002
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT2744
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-33112000
SPRINT26.225
JJ. Rave★RF
1-22010000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33010000
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
1-22011000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11000001
Team12-37375125239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. FalterB. Falter★RP
4.0877221
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0100000
S. LongS. LongRP
1.2211120
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.1000010
Team8.01188351
BOS

BOS

63-51

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-44220000
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-33121011
SPRINT25.818
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-33121010
SPRINT2872
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-44112000
SPRINT26.326
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-33110011
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44011000
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44113100
SPRINT29.294
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-44110001
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-44000002
Team11-33338118135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
6.0610150
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0000110
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
0.1333012
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
0.1211010
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
0.1100100
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000010
Team9.01254392

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • B. Falter
    88 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      44%·85.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      31%·92.1 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      13%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·84.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Long
    43 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      30%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      21%·77.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      16%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      47%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·87.6 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·97.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Clarke
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      45%·87.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.6 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • B. Bello
    102 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      29%·95.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.7 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.5 mph·18% whiff
  • J. Alcala
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.0 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      21%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·92.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·98.7 mph·— whiff
  • S. Matz
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      59%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      29%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·83.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      54%·99.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      38%·92.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.2 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      70%·93.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SL
      56%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

11

5

Runs

8

0

Errors

3

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Aug 4KCKC5@BOSBOS8today
Aug 5KCKC2@BOSBOS6
Aug 6KCKC7@BOSBOS3

Season series

BOS leads series 3-1

May 9BOSBOS1@KCKC2
May 10BOSBOS10@KCKC1
May 11BOSBOS3@KCKC1
Aug 4KCKC5@BOSBOS8today
Aug 5KCKC2@BOSBOS6
Aug 6KCKC7@BOSBOS3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

B. Falter

B. Falter

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 7 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
A. Bregman

A. Bregman

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat KC 8-5.

Win probability

BOS vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 90% WP

Refsnyder · singled to center, Bregman scored and González scored, Abreu to third.

BOSBottom 1st Inning · 0-5
+9pp→ 95% WP

Duran · homered to center (419 feet), Abreu scored and Refsnyder scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0001000405
BOS50110010—8

Period scoring

KC won 1 · BOS won 3

0
5

Inn 1

Duran 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Rafaela 1

1
1

Inn 4

Frazier 1

Bregman 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Abreu 1

4
0

Inn 8

Pasquantino 1

0

Inn 9

KC
BOS

Play-by-play · 616 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  2. T9

    Perez grounded out to third.

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  6. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Salvador Perez

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  7. T9

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  8. T9

    Garcia flied out to center.

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

    +0.9pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  15. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Maikel Garcia

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  16. T9

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  17. T9

    Pasquantino struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

    +2pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  22. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  23. T9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 5·BOS 8

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 5·BOS 8

  26. B8

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  27. B8

    Wong struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 5·BOS 8

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

5

Runs

8

12

Hits

11

0

Errors

3

22

TB

15

2

HR

1

3

BB

3

9

K

5

18

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Carter JensenKC
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    59.8%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.1%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.4%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.