MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6KC

55-55

TOR

64-47

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,492 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
60.7%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.1%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.3%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low
Noah CameronKC
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Jac CaglianoneKC
1.4± 1.3high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.3± 2.8high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.6± 1.0high
Michael MasseyKC
0.6± 0.8high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TOR

.692

OPS

.715

▶

.702

.315

OBP

.319

.314

3.96

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.13

4.45

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.08

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 9 · TOR 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	9
TOR	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. India2B	.240	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.288	3	1	1	3	1	2	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.266	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
M. Garcia3B	.302	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
S. PerezC	.254	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
M. YastrzemskiLF	.333	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
R. GrichukRF	.235	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.259	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.251	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.181	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.208	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	9	11	9	4	3	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.240

.288

.266

.302

.254

.333

.235

.259

.251

.181

.214

.208

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. WachaSP	8.0	3	1	1	0	5	100
T. HatchRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	19
Team	9.0	5	3	3	0	6	119

Player

M. WachaSP

8.0

100

T. HatchRP

1.0

Team

9.0

119

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. LukesRF	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.386	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.294	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. Bichette3B	.293	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.264	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. France1B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Clement2B	.277	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	5	3	2	0	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. GausmanSP	6.0	6	5	5	0	5	93
L. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
T. NanceRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21
M. FluhartyRP	0.2	4	4	4	1	0	35
B. FisherRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	13
Team	9.0	11	9	9	3	7	176

Team

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.