MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIL

MIL

78-44

CIN

64-60

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

39,022 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
39.3%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.7%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.8%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high
Andrew VaughnMIL
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

CIN

.730

OPS

◀

.715

.708

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.314

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

3.42

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.74

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 6 · CIN 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
MIL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	5

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. FrelickRF	.294	6	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrtizSS	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. ContrerasC	.263	5	0	2	0	0	1	1
C. YelichDH	.270	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. Vaughn1B	.330	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Durbin3B	.256	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
B. Turang2B	.279	4	2	2	1	0	1	1
S. BerroaRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. LockridgeLF	.258	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Seigler2B	.222	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. BlackDH	.286	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
A. MonasterioSS	.254	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
Team		41	6	8	4	1	7	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.294

.232

.263

.270

.330

.256

.279

.000

.258

.222

.286

.254

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Q. PriesterSP	5.1	6	2	2	1	5	83
A. AshbyRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	10
S. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
J. KoenigRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	9
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
T. MegillRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	2	18
N. MearsRP	1.0	1	2	1	0	0	13
Team	11.0	9	5	3	3	13	167

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

11.0

167

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.270	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. SteerLF	.238	3	1	1	1	1	2	1
E. De La CruzSS	.276	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. AndujarDH	.389	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
G. LuxLF	.280	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.292	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
M. McLain2B	.222	5	1	0	0	0	0	4
J. TrevinoC	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Hayes3B	.234	4	1	2	2	1	0	2
A. HaysLF	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FraleyRF	.232	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Espinal3B	.251	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		39	5	9	5	3	3	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Z. LittellSP	6.0	4	1	1	1	3	87
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	15
T. SantillanRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	17
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	1	0	2	1	26
S. BarlowRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	5
J. La SorsaRP	1.0	3	3	2	0	0	19
Team	11.0	8	6	3	7	7	169

Team

MIL

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.