MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SD

68-52

59-61

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

35,186 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
44.4%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.5%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.4%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.1low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.3± 2.0low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.7± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.5± 0.5high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.5± 3.7high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.1± 1.8high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.1± 1.3high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.6low
Willy AdamesSF
0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.3± 2.8low
Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.727

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.308

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.13

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.54

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 5 · SF 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	5
SF	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.263	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
L. Arraez2B	.290	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Machado3B	.297	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
X. BogaertsSS	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.263	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
R. LaureanoLF	.290	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
J. Iglesias2B	.234	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.244	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.269	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	10	4	2	4	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.263

.290

.297

.270

.263

.290

.234

.244

.269

.250

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. CortesSP	4.2	6	1	1	1	6	79
D. MorganRP	0.2	2	0	0	1	1	17
J. AdamRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	19
A. MorejonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
R. SuarezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	10	1	1	2	11	144

Player

4.2

0.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.268	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SchmittDH	.254	5	1	4	0	0	0	1
R. Devers1B	.256	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. AdamesSS	.225	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Flores1B	.249	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
M. Chapman3B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. LeeRF	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Fitzgerald2B	.225	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.216	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. SmithDH	.285	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.071	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	1	10	1	0	2	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. RaySP	6.0	7	4	4	1	4	113
M. GageRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	14
J. ButtoRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	9
C. SeymourRP	2.0	1	1	1	2	0	37
Team	9.0	10	5	5	4	4	173

Team

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.