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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7BAL
BAL

BAL

56-66

7
0
HOU

HOU

68-54

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
33,654 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 7 · HOU 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0001201307
HOU0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 97
    92
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 96
    93
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 96
    14
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    302
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    296
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    303
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 15·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Houston Astros and beat them, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Ramon Urias

Ramon Urias

3B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL56-66
7
0
HOU68-54
BAL56-66·HOU68-54
BAL

BAL

56-66

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-55110001
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
2-44120010
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44012001
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-55010000
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
2-55120001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44111102
SPRINT2872
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-44021001
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
2-44122100
D. JohnsonD. Johnson★CF
1-44110001
Team13-39397136217
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. YoungB. Young★SP
8.0100060
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
1.0000010
Team9.0100070
HOU

HOU

68-54

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-33000000
SPRINT27.251
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000000
SPRINT25.818
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000001
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33000001
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.735
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-33000001
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000001
Team1-2828010007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
6.2943161
S. DubinS. DubinRP
1.1333011
J. WeemsJ. WeemsRP
1.0100000
Team9.01376172

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • Y. Hiraldo
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      42%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      25%·86.8 mph·50% whiff

HOU

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

1

7

Runs

0

1

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Aug 16BALBAL7@HOUHOU0today
Aug 16BALBAL4@HOUHOU5
Aug 17BALBAL12@HOUHOU0

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Aug 16BALBAL7@HOUHOU0today
Aug 16BALBAL4@HOUHOU5
Aug 17BALBAL12@HOUHOU0
Aug 21HOUHOU7@BALBAL2
Aug 22HOUHOU10@BALBAL7
Aug 23HOUHOU9@BALBAL8
Aug 24HOUHOU2@BALBAL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 5th Inning

BALBAL
D. Carlson

D. Carlson

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H

HOUHOU
R. Urias

R. Urias

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat HOU 7-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 37% WP

Mayo · homered to left (353 feet).

BALTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+13pp→ 73% WP

Henderson · hit sacrifice fly to left, Johnson scored on error and Holliday scored on throwing error by left fielder Sánchez, Westburg safe at second on error.

BALTop 7th Inning · 4-0
+6pp→ 92% WP

Henderson · singled to left, Westburg scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0001201307
HOU0000000000

Period scoring

BAL won 4 · HOU won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Mayo 1

2
0

Inn 5

Henderson 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Henderson 1

3
0

Inn 8

Carlson 2

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
HOU

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  2. B9

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  3. B9

    Altuve struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  7. B9

    Yaramil Hiraldo pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  8. B9

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  9. B9

    Smith flied out to center.

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  13. B9

    Yaramil Hiraldo pitches to Cam Smith

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  14. B9

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  15. B9

    Dubón popped out to third.

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  20. B9

    Yaramil Hiraldo pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  21. B9

    Hiraldo relieved Young

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  24. T9

    · ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  25. T9

    Mountcastle fouled out to right.

    · ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  29. T9

    Jordan Weems pitches to Ryan Mountcastle

    · ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

  30. T9

    ·

    BAL 7·HOU 0

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

7

Runs

0

13

Hits

1

1

Errors

1

20

TB

1

2

HR

0

1

BB

0

7

K

7

11

LOB

1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

HOU vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    59.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.7%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.0%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.