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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
BAL

BAL

44-54

5
3
TB

TB

52-48

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
9,195 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 5 · TB 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL1030010005
TB0011000013

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    241
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    243
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    264
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    245
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    92
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    93
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 20·Final/SeriesTB wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday

2B

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Danny Jansen

Danny Jansen

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL44-54
5
3
TB52-48
BAL44-54·TB52-48
BAL

BAL

44-54

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-44211110
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
2-44120000
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44012002
SPRINT28.175
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44111100
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-22000002
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-44010002
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44010001
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44010001
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
1-44111103
R. UriasR. Urias3B
0-22000001
Team9-36365953112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
6.0522231
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000010
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0100010
F. BautistaF. BautistaRP
1.0111320
Team9.0733571
TB

TB

52-48

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-55000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-33000021
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44120011
SPRINT25.716
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-55021001
SPRINT25.716
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
0-33000010
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-44000001
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-33211111
SPRINT26.838
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT28.278
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT27.765
Team7-3535373157
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
6.0655183
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
2.0200020
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0100020
Team9.09551123

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    91 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      38%·92.3 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      26%·85.9 mph·6% whiff
    • SI
      16%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·80.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      9%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Bautista
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      62%·95.8 mph·43% whiff
    • FS
      29%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      53%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·88.6 mph·14% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.9 mph·— whiff

TB

  • R. Pepiot
    93 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      29%·86.6 mph·41% whiff
    • SL
      14%·89.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      4%·91.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.9 mph·— whiff
  • I. Seymour
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      35%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      29%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      12%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      3%·80.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      28%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      28%·89.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

5

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 4-3

Jun 16BALBAL1@TBTB7
Jun 17BALBAL5@TBTB1
Jun 18BALBAL8@TBTB12
Jun 19BALBAL4@TBTB1
Jul 18BALBAL1@TBTB11
Jul 19BALBAL3@TBTB4
Jul 20BALBAL5@TBTB3today

Season series

Series tied 5-5

Jun 16BALBAL1@TBTB7
Jun 17BALBAL5@TBTB1
Jun 18BALBAL8@TBTB12
Jun 19BALBAL4@TBTB1
Jun 27TBTB8@BALBAL22
Jun 28TBTB11@BALBAL3
Jun 29TBTB1@BALBAL5
Jul 18BALBAL1@TBTB11
Jul 19BALBAL3@TBTB4
Jul 20BALBAL5@TBTB3today
Sep 23TBTB0@BALBAL6
Sep 24TBTB6@BALBAL2
Sep 25TBTB5@BALBAL6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 9th Inning

BALBAL
J. Holliday

J. Holliday

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TBTB
D. Jansen

D. Jansen

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TB 5-3. Caminero's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 64% WP

Jackson · homered to left center (405 feet).

BALTop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+13pp→ 86% WP

Henderson · doubled to right, Westburg scored and Holliday scored.

BALBottom 9th Inning · 5-3
+19pp→ 100% WP

Caminero · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL1030010005
TB0011000013

Period scoring

BAL won 3 · TB won 2

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
1

Inn 3

Henderson 2

Caminero 1

0
1

Inn 4

Jansen 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

O'Hearn 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Walls 1

BAL
TB

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 5·TB 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  3. B9

    Caminero struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

    −19pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  10. B9

    Felix Bautista pitches to Junior Caminero

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  11. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  12. B9

    Díaz walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

    +7pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  15. B9

    Kim stole second, Walls stole third.

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  16. B9

    Kim stole second, Walls stole third.

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  22. B9

    Felix Bautista pitches to Yandy Diaz

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  23. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  24. B9

    Kim walked, Walls to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

    +7pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

  30. B9

    Felix Bautista pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    · ·

    BAL 5·TB 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

TB

Home

5

Runs

3

9

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

20

TB

11

3

HR

1

1

BB

5

12

K

7

12

LOB

18

Player projections

TB vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    59.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.2%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.8%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175