MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9ATH

ATH

50-65

167

WSH

44-68

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

21,636 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
48.1%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.5%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.6%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
6.0± 4.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Zack LittellWSH
2.7± 3.4low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.3± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

WSH

.735

OPS

.715

.740

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.32

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.33

4.60

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.73

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.40

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 16 · WSH 7 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	5	0	1	3	1	0	2	4	0	16
WSH	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	4	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. LangeliersC	.272	6	4	5	3	3	0	0
N. Kurtz1B	.311	4	4	3	0	0	2	0
B. RookerDH	.275	6	3	4	3	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.219	6	2	4	6	1	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.133	5	1	1	0	0	1	2
D. HernaizSS	.318	4	1	2	3	1	1	0
T. SoderstromLF	.259	5	0	2	1	0	1	1
G. Urshela3B	.233	6	0	3	0	0	0	2
M. SchuemannSS	.204	6	1	0	0	0	0	3
W. MacIverC	.245	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		48	16	24	16	5	5	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.272

.311

.275

.219

.133

.318

.259

.233

.204

.245

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. SeverinoSP	6.0	5	3	3	2	5	104
J. SternerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
B. BowdenRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
E. NunezRP	0.2	4	4	4	2	1	38
O. BidoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
Team	9.0	10	7	7	5	8	174

Player

L. SeverinoSP

6.0

104

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

174

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. AbramsSS	.273	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. WoodRF	.256	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.265	5	2	3	2	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.226	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.221	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
B. House3B	.254	3	0	1	3	0	1	1
D. LileLF	.247	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. MillasC	.367	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.234	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Hassell IIICF	.241	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		35	7	10	7	0	5	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. GoreSP	3.0	12	8	8	1	0	60
C. BeeterRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	3	30
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	24
P. PoulinRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	13
A. LaraSP	2.0	8	6	6	1	1	43
J. RutledgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	22
Team	9.0	24	16	16	5	9	192

Team

ATH

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.