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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIN
MIN

MIN

54-60

9
4
DET

DET

66-50

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
29,192 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 9 · DET 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN2101221009
DET0130000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    296
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 97
    292
    6(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    37
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    248
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    2612
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 95
    93
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 9–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Austin Martin

Austin Martin

LF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN54-60
9
4
DET66-50
MIN54-60·DET66-50
MIN

MIN

54-60

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. RodenA. Roden★LF
2-55221100
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-55210001
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
2-44121001
SPRINT26.326
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-55000001
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-55023000
SPRINT28.688
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44100011
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
2-44221110
SPRINT26.428
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-11010010
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
0-44001000
A. MartinA. MartinLF
1-11111110
SPRINT27.867
Team11-38389118344
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. OhlP. Ohl★RP
2.2444033
T. HatchT. HatchRP
4.1200130
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.0100000
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
1.0100010
Team9.0844173
DET

DET

66-50

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-22110011
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-33112100
SPRINT26.735
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT26.123
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000003
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44010000
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000000
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33111101
SPRINT26.941
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-33010000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000000
Team8-3333484317
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
4.2865131
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0222002
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.2111300
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.2000010
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0000000
Team9.01198443

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • P. Ohl
    61 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.0 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      34%·80.3 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      15%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Hatch
    56 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      29%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.7 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Kriske
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FS
      63%·81.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      37%·93.0 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      67%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.8 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    82 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      49%·92.7 mph·6% whiff
    • KC
      28%·77.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·91.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      77%·86.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·80.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      62%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

9

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 27MINMIN4@DETDET1
Jun 28MINMIN5@DETDET10
Jun 29MINMIN0@DETDET3
Aug 4MINMIN3@DETDET6
Aug 5MINMIN6@DETDET3
Aug 6MINMIN9@DETDET4today

Season series

DET leads series 5-4

Apr 12DETDET7@MINMIN6
Apr 12DETDET4@MINMIN0
Apr 13DETDET1@MINMIN5
Jun 27MINMIN4@DETDET1
Jun 28MINMIN5@DETDET10
Jun 29MINMIN0@DETDET3
Aug 4MINMIN3@DETDET6
Aug 5MINMIN6@DETDET3
Aug 6MINMIN9@DETDET4today
Aug 14DETDET4@MINMIN3
Aug 16DETDET7@MINMIN0
Aug 16DETDET8@MINMIN5
Aug 17DETDET1@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 6th Inning

MINMIN
A. Martin

A. Martin

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

T. Hatch

T. Hatch

RP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

DETDET
S. Torkelson

S. Torkelson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIN beat DET 9-4. Martin's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 47% WP

Keaschall · doubled to left, Wallner scored and Roden scored.

DETBottom 3rd Inning · 3-4
+20pp→ 77% WP

Carpenter · homered to right (414 feet), Keith scored.

MINTop 6th Inning · 7-4
+22pp→ 81% WP

Martin · homered to left (395 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN2101221009
DET0130000004

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DET

Home

9

Runs

4

11

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

23

TB

17

3

HR

3

4

BB

1

4

K

7

20

LOB

10

Win probability

DET vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

MIN won 5 · DET won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Keaschall 2

1
1

Inn 2

Roden 1

Torkelson 1

0
3

Inn 3

Carpenter 2

1
0

Inn 4

Lee 1

2
0

Inn 5

Jeffers 1

2
0

Inn 6

Martin 1

1
0

Inn 7

Gasper 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIN
DET

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 9·DET 4

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  3. B9

    Dingler grounded into fielder's choice to second, Torkelson out at second.

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  7. B9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  8. B9

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  9. B9

    Pérez fouled out to first.

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  15. B9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Wenceel Perez

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  16. B9

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  17. B9

    Greene struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

    −1pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  25. B9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  26. B9

    ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  27. B9

    Torkelson singled to center.

    ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

    +0.9pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 9·DET 4

Player projections

DET vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.9%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    59.4%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.2%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278