MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PIT

PIT

47-62

54-55

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

38,144 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
52.7%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.5%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.5%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.7low
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.1low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.7± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.5± 0.5high
Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.5± 3.7high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.1± 1.8high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.1± 1.3high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.1high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.8± 1.8low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

.739

OPS

◀

.715

.727

.334

OBP

◀

.319

.308

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.54

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 2 · SF 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2
SF	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Horwitz1B	.252	4	0	2	1	0	1	2
A. McCutchenDH	.244	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.232	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
O. CruzCF	.217	4	1	0	0	0	1	3
N. Gonzales3B	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SuwinskiRF	.104	3	0	0	0	0	2	2
H. DavisC	.175	4	0	1	1	0	1	1
L. PegueroSS	.250	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.265	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		36	2	7	2	0	7	14

Player

AVG

RBI

.252

.244

.232

.217

.253

.104

.175

.250

.265

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. BurrowsSP	6.0	3	1	1	1	7	91
C. MlodzinskiSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	19
I. MattsonRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	26
Team	10.0	6	1	1	1	10	136

Player

M. BurrowsSP

6.0

C. MlodzinskiSP

2.0

I. MattsonRP

2.0

Team

10.0

136

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.267	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.219	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
W. AdamesSS	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. Chapman3B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SmithDH	.265	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. LeeRF	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittDH	.242	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Wisely2B	.208	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	1	6	1	0	1	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. WebbSP	5.2	5	1	1	4	11	109
S. BivensRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. GageRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	14
T. BeckRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	17
C. DovalRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	16
R. WalkerRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	0	21
Team	10.0	7	2	1	7	14	180

Team

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.