MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CIN

CIN

53-50

WSH

41-61

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

21,567 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.4%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
45.1%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.7%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.5%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Cade CavalliWSH
6.0± 4.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.1± 2.6high
James WoodWSH
2.0± 1.9high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high
JJ BledayCIN
0.6± 0.7high
Sal StewartCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

WSH

.708

OPS

.715

▶

.740

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.33

4.74

Team ERA

4.16

4.73

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.40

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 5 · WSH 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	2	5
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.265	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. LuxLF	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.276	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
A. HaysLF	.278	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. FraleyRF	.257	4	1	2	1	0	0	2
N. MarteRF	.282	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. TrevinoC	.262	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.251	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
M. McLain2B	.220	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JoeRF	.220	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	8	3	0	4	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.265

.275

.276

.278

.257

.282

.262

.216

.251

.220

.220

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. LodoloSP	9.0	4	0	0	0	8	105
Team	9.0	4	0	0	0	8	105

Player

N. LodoloSP

9.0

105

Team

9.0

105

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. AbramsSS	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WoodRF	.272	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Rosario3B	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. LoweDH	.226	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CallLF	.270	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. House3B	.279	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.261	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. MillasC	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. AdamsC	.168	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	0	4	0	0	0	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. SorokaSP	5.2	2	1	1	3	6	88
C. HenryRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
J. RutledgeRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	0	14
A. LaraSP	1.0	2	2	1	1	0	14
Team	9.0	8	5	4	4	7	141

Team

CIN

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.