MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PIT

DET

60-42

PIT

41-61

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

17,257 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.9%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
43.5%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.1%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.2%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low

Hits

Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.4high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.3± 3.5high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high
Kerry CarpenterDET
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.7± 1.7low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

PIT

.705

OPS

.717

▶

.737

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.99

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.22

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

DET 5 · PIT 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	5
PIT	0	2	1	2	0	3	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. Keith3B	.251	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.286	5	0	3	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. GreeneLF	.276	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
S. Torkelson1B	.239	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. MeadowsCF	.190	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
J. BaezSS	.273	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. RogersC	.167	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. JonesDH	.260	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. SweeneySS	.209	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	5	10	5	2	4	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.251

.286

.250

.276

.239

.273

.190

.273

.167

.200

.260

.209

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. MizeSP	4.0	10	5	4	1	5	86
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
C. HernandezRP	0.1	2	3	3	0	1	14
B. HurterRP	2.1	2	0	0	3	2	46
T. HoltonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	8.0	14	8	7	4	10	165

Player

4.0

1.0

0.1

2.1

0.1

Team

8.0

165

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Horwitz1B	.249	4	2	3	2	0	1	1
N. Gonzales3B	.265	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.234	5	2	3	2	0	0	1
T. PhamLF	.254	5	1	3	2	0	0	0
O. CruzCF	.215	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
K. Hayes3B	.243	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
A. CanarioLF	.214	4	0	0	0	0	1	4
H. DavisC	.182	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.274	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		40	8	14	7	0	4	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. KellerSP	6.0	6	3	3	3	5	89
I. MattsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	24
C. FergusonRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	27
D. BednarRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	18
Team	9.0	10	5	5	4	11	158

Team

DET

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.