Recent form
7-3
WSH +4.1 vs LA -6.9 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks
WSH
WSH
24-15
PregameFri, 10:00 PM EDTION
LA
LA
13-25
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Los Angeles Sparks Friday at 8/28 - 10:00 PM EDT. WSH arrives on a 3-game win streak (7-3 in their last 10).
Vegas opened WSH as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 167.5. LA's moneyline implies a 37% break-even, WSH the inverse. LA comes in with 3 extra days of rest.
For bettors: the WSH side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 167.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
LA
Home
45
FG %
46
Season series
Series tied 1-1
May 29LA92@WSH87
LA92@WSH87Aug 15LA70@WSH80
LA70@WSH80Aug 29WSH@LAtoday
WSH@LAtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
WSH -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
167.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
WSH-20567%LA+17037%6· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
167.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
WSH @ LA
StorylineWSH riding a 3-game win streak.
Rest going in
LA +3 days
WSHStandard
1 day
last game Aug 27
LALong rest
4 days
last game Aug 24
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
WSH -5.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
167.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
WSH -205
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
WSHmetricLA
24-15
Record
13-25
#3
Conf rank
#6
-0.1
Pt diff
-5.2
W3
Streak
L1
7-3
Last 10
2-8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
WSH -5.5·O/U 167.5·WSH -205/LA +170
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
LA vs WSH.
LA is 2-8 recently; WSH is 7-3.
35.2%
model · LA win prob
Recent form
- LA2–8-6.9
- WSH7–3+4.1
Situational
- LA4d rest
- WSH1d restB2B
- +3.0d differential
LA has 3 more rest days. LA has 0 straight road games; WSH has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Shakira AustinWSH18.2points · ±6.6
Shakira Austin · 18.2 pts · last-10 19.2 vs season 16.8.
- Nneka OgwumikeLA15.8points · ±5.2
Nneka Ogwumike · 15.8 pts · last-10 15.2 vs season 16.7.
- Rae BurrellLA15.8points · ±5.6
Rae Burrell · 15.8 pts · last-10 16.9 vs season 14.1.
Head-to-head · 4-2 · last 6
LA is 4-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-07-22LA @ WSH93–86
- 2025-08-17LA @ WSH86–95
- 2025-09-01WSH @ LA78–81
- 2026-05-29LA @ WSH92–87
- 2026-08-15LA @ WSH70–80
Line move
open +180→+164toward LA
The market has moved 2.2pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
35.7%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
41.3%
P(LA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
41.2%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
42.3%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.49 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+1.27
CLV pp
Open price
+180
Close price
+170
Open no-vig
34.3%
Close no-vig
35.5%
Market came to the model
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at LA?
- The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
LA vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 105 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH18.2± 6.6high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA15.8± 5.2high
- Rae BurrellLA15.8± 5.5high
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.8± 2.4high
- Shakira AustinWSH9.2± 1.8high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA8.8± 3.1high
Assists
- Sonia CitronWSH5.1± 2.3high
- Erica WheelerLA4.9± 2.7high
- Ariel AtkinsLA3.1± 1.7high
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.9± 1.6high
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4high
- Lauren BettsWSH1.0± 1.3high
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.8± 1.0high
- Dearica HambyLA1.2± 0.9high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA1.0± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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