Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LV?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

TOR

11-27

PregameFri, 10:00 PM EDTION

26-13

ATS/LV -13.5O/U/176.5ML/LV-1050

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

6-4

LV +0.3 vs TOR -9.6 margin

LV brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+3.0 days

LV 5 rest vs TOR 2

LV has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+254.0

LV Elo vs TOR Elo

LV owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing TOR uphill early today again.

WNBAFri, Aug 288/28 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesLV leads series 2-0VegasLV -13.5

Preview · WNBA

oronto Tempo visit Las Vegas Aces Friday at 8/28 - 10:00 PM EDT. LV is 4-4 in their last 8.

Vegas opened LV as a 13.5-point favorite with the total at 176.5. LV's moneyline implies a 91% break-even, TOR the inverse.

For bettors: the LV side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 176.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

LV leads series 2-0

Jul 21

LV109@

TOR83

Aug 23

LV88@

TOR78

Aug 29

TOR@

LVtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -13.5

Between 10 and —

2.0pt· 6.2h

Total

176.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

TOR+67513%

LV-105091%

400· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -13.5↗SpreadBet LV -13.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

-2.0 since open

Total

176.5

-4.0 since open

Scouting report

TOR @ LV

8/28 - 10:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

TORStandard

2 days

last game Aug 26

LVUnknown

—

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

LV -13.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

176.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LV -1050

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

TORmetricLV

11-27

Record

26-13

Conf rank

-6.6

Pt diff

+3.6

Streak

1-9

Last 10

6-4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

LV -13.5·O/U 176.5·TOR +675/LV -1050

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

LV vs TOR.

LV is 6-4 recently; TOR is 1-9.

93.5%

model · LV win prob

Recent form

LV6–4+0.3
TOR1–9-9.6

Situational

LV5d rest
TOR2d rest
+3.0d differential

LV has 3 more rest days. LV has 1 straight road games; TOR has 1.

Model angle

+5.8ppon LV

LV's edge is mostly venue split plus rest advantage. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Venue split+1.5pp
▼Line steam-0.9pp
▲Rest advantage+0.9pp

Players to watch

A'ja WilsonLV
25.0points · ±6.6
A'ja Wilson · 25 pts · last-10 24.8 vs season 25.4.
Jackie YoungLV
20.9points · ±6.4
Jackie Young · 20.9 pts · last-10 22.5 vs season 18.6.
Marina MabreyTOR
20.7points · ±8.0
Marina Mabrey · 20.7 pts · last-10 20.6 vs season 20.9.

Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2

LV is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-20LV @ TOR109–83
2026-08-23LV @ TOR88–78

Line move

open -1450→-1050toward TOR

The market has moved 2.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

91.8%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
86.6%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
85.7%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
81.6%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LV.

LV's edge is mostly venue split plus rest advantage. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+5.8

pp edge · LV

+2.27

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on LV

98.0%

±3.6pp band

5u large — +6.7pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+10.4pp

+4.6pp post-cal

Kelly

76.9%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.10

+6.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.8pp · LV over TOR

▲
Venue split66% conf
LV's venue form is 63.6pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▼
Line steam73% conf
The market moved 2.3pp away from LV since open.
-0.9pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
LV has 5 days rest; TOR has 2.
+0.9pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
LV sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.8pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
LV is 3-2 over its last 5; TOR is 1-4.
+0.8pp

Open price

+850

Close price

+675

Open no-vig

10.1%

Close no-vig

12.4%

Market steamed in our direction

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LV?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

LV vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.0± 6.6high
Jackie YoungLV
20.9± 6.4high
Marina MabreyTOR
20.7± 8.0high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.0± 3.8high
NaLyssa SmithLV
7.3± 2.9high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
7.2± 4.2high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.3± 2.2high
Jackie YoungLV
6.3± 2.7high
Julie AllemandTOR
5.6± 3.0high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
2.0± 1.3high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
0.8± 1.1high
NaLyssa SmithLV
0.7± 0.9high

Steals

Chelsea GrayLV
1.4± 1.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.2± 0.9high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Toronto Tempo at Las Vegas Aces

LV vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LV.

LV vs TOR.