Recent form
8-2
GS +9.0 vs LA -2.8 margin
GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks
GS
GS
22-9
PregameSun, 7:00 PM EDTESPN, Disney+
LA
LA
12-18
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Los Angeles Sparks Sunday at 8/9 - 7:00 PM EDT. GS arrives on a 3-game win streak (3-2 in their last 5).
Vegas opened GS as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 169.5. LA's moneyline implies a 33% break-even, GS the inverse.
For bettors: the GS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 169.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 20 over 6.1hjust now
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
LA
Home
42
FG %
47
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
Jun 16LA58@GS78
LA58@GS78Aug 9GS@LAtoday
GS@LAtodaySep 25GS@LAupcoming
GS@LAupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
169.5
Standard · +4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS-24571%LA+20033%20· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 85 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
169.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
GS @ LA
StorylineGS riding a 3-game win streak.
Rest going in
LA +1 day
GSStandard
1 day
last game Aug 7
LAStandard
2 days
last game Aug 6
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
GS -5.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
169.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
GS -245
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
GSmetricLA
22-9
Record
12-18
#2
Conf rank
#6
+6.2
Pt diff
-4.3
W3
Streak
W1
8-2
Last 10
3-7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
GS -5.5·O/U 169.5·GS -245/LA +200
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
LA vs GS.
LA is 3-7 recently; GS is 8-2.
28.8%
model · LA win prob
Recent form
- LA3–7-2.8
- GS8–2+9.0
Situational
- LA3d rest
- GS2d rest
- +1.0d differential
LA has 1 more rest day. LA has 3 straight road games; GS has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Nneka OgwumikeLA17.0points · ±4.5
Nneka Ogwumike · 17 pts · last-10 17 vs season 16.9.
- Dearica HambyLA15.8points · ±4.2
Dearica Hamby · 15.8 pts · last-10 16.4 vs season 14.9.
- Rae BurrellLA15.0points · ±5.5
Rae Burrell · 15 pts · last-10 16.3 vs season 13.2.
Head-to-head · 0-3 · last 3
LA is 0-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-06-10GS @ LA89–81
- 2025-08-10LA @ GS59–72
- 2026-06-15LA @ GS58–78
Line move
open +180→+200toward GS
The market has moved 2.4pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
30.8%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
38.6%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
40.9%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
42.2%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.49 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.31
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+180
Close price
+200
Open no-vig
34.3%
Close no-vig
31.9%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at LA?
- The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
LA vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 100 high confidence
Points
- Nneka OgwumikeLA17.0± 4.5high
- Dearica HambyLA15.8± 4.2high
- Rae BurrellLA15.0± 5.5high
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA8.8± 3.1high
- Dearica HambyLA7.5± 3.4high
- Kiah StokesGS5.7± 2.6high
Assists
- Erica WheelerLA6.2± 2.4high
- Veronica BurtonGS5.9± 2.1high
- Ariel AtkinsLA3.8± 1.6high
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.9± 1.4high
- Cameron BrinkLA1.7± 1.0high
- Laeticia AmihereGS0.8± 1.2high
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.6± 0.9high
- Dearica HambyLA1.6± 0.8high
- Veronica BurtonGS1.5± 0.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands