Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics
PHX
5-12
WSH
7-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Washington Mystics Sunday at 8/9 - 3:00 PM EDT. WSH is 4-3 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
42
FG %
45
Season series
Series starts 8/9
PHX@WSHtodayWSH@PHXupcomingWSH@PHXupcomingScouting report
PHX @ WSH
Tale of the tape
5-12
Record
7-7
#7
Conf rank
#5
-3.4
Pt diff
-3.8
W1
Streak
W2
3-7
Last 10
5-5
53.6
Sched ahead
92.5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.8%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3± 10.1medium
- Sonia CitronWSH15.6± 6.8medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH15.1± 9.5low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.5medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.0± 5.3low
- Shakira AustinWSH7.9± 4.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.7medium
- Sonia CitronWSH3.9± 2.9medium
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.7± 2.8medium
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.2medium
- Shakira AustinWSH1.2± 1.3low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.7± 1.3low
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
- Sonia CitronWSH1.4± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
WSH
42.7%
FG%
44.6
▶44.9%
32.4%
3PT %
33.5
29.4%
82.5
PPG
85.9
82.2
19.4
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.6