Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

PHX

12-21

PregameSun, 3:00 PM EDTMNMT, WNBA League Pass, Arizona's Family 3TV

WSH

18-12

ATS/WSH -1.5O/U/167.5ML/WSH-122

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

WSH +3.0 vs PHX -6.4 margin

WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+79.8

WSH Elo vs PHX Elo

WSH owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing PHX uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 98/9 - 3:00 PM EDTSeriesstarts 8/9VegasWSH -1.5

Preview · WNBA

hoenix Mercury visit Washington Mystics Sunday at 8/9 - 3:00 PM EDT. PHX is 4-3 in their last 7. WSH arrives on a 6-game win streak (6-0 in their last 6).

Vegas opened WSH as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 167.5. WSH's moneyline implies a 55% break-even, PHX the inverse.

For bettors: the WSH side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 167.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 14 over 6.1hjust now

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

FG %

Season series

Series starts 8/9

Aug 9

PHX@

WSHtoday

Aug 26

WSH@

PHXupcoming

Aug 28

WSH@

PHXupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

167.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

PHX+10250%

WSH-12255%

14· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 84 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

167.5

-2.0 since open

Scouting report

PHX @ WSH

8/9 - 3:00 PM EDT

StorylineWSH on a 6-game roll.

Rest going in

PHXStandard

1 day

last game Aug 7

WSHStandard

1 day

last game Aug 7

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

WSH -1.5

Model

WSH -32.6

Edge

+31.1 pts

Total

Market

167.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

WSH -122

Model

WSH

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

PHXmetricWSH

12-21

Record

18-12

Conf rank

-3.4

Pt diff

-1.3

Streak

4-6

Last 10

8-2

54.5

Power score

87.1

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 167.5·PHX +102/WSH -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

WSH vs PHX.

WSH enters on a 6-game win streak; PHX is 4-6 over its last 10.

70.5%

model · WSH win prob

Recent form

WSH8–2+3.0
PHX4–6-6.4

Situational

WSH2d rest
PHX2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; PHX has 3.

Model angle

+17.9ppon WSH

WSH's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Venue split+1.5pp
▲Recent form+1.2pp

Players to watch

Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2points · ±7.8
Kahleah Copper · 20.2 pts · last-10 20.3 vs season 20.2.
Shakira AustinWSH
19.3points · ±4.9
Shakira Austin · 19.3 pts · last-10 21.4 vs season 16.1.
Alyssa ThomasPHX
15.2points · ±5.9
Alyssa Thomas · 15.2 pts · last-10 15.7 vs season 14.4.

Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2

WSH is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-27PHX @ WSH88–72
2025-09-04PHX @ WSH75–69

Line move

open -110→-122toward WSH

The market has moved 2.6pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
70.3%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
70.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
65.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like WSH.

WSH's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag.

+17.9

pp edge · WSH

+2.61

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on WSH

70.7%

±8.1pp band

5u large — +15.7pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+18.1pp

+0.2pp post-cal

Kelly

35.0%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.82

+15.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 17.9pp · WSH over PHX

▲
Model confidence90% conf
WSH clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Venue split70% conf
WSH's venue form is 35pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
WSH is 5-0 over its last 5; PHX is 2-3.
+1.2pp
▲
Line steam75% conf
The market moved 2.6pp toward WSH since open.
+1.0pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
PHX is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+0.8pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
PHX has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Market steamed in our direction

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

WSH vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumPHX
22.8± 12.4medium
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 7.8high
Shakira AustinWSH
19.3± 4.9high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
10.0± 3.6high
Kiki IriafenWSH
8.4± 3.6high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.8± 3.0high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 4.1high
Kelsey PlumPHX
5.8± 3.4medium
Sonia CitronWSH
4.0± 1.8high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.4± 1.6high
Lauren BettsWSH
1.1± 1.3high
Sonia CitronWSH
0.9± 1.1high

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.3± 1.4high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
1.2± 0.9high
Kelsey PlumPHX
1.0± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics

WSH vs PHX.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like WSH.

WSH vs PHX.