Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings
CHI
4-9
DAL
9-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hicago Sky visit Dallas Wings Saturday at 6/20 - 8:00 PM EDT. DAL is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
DAL99@CHI89CHI@DALtodayCHI@DALupcomingScouting report
CHI @ DAL
Tale of the tape
4-9
Record
9-5
#6
Conf rank
#4
-5.6
Pt diff
+6.0
L3
Streak
W1
2-8
Last 10
7-3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
42
FG %
46
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.5± 8.7medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL14.8± 14.0low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.8± 4.2medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.2± 4.5medium
- Azura StevensCHI5.6± 5.4low
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.0± 3.9medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.7± 4.3medium
- Natasha CloudCHI4.3± 3.2low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.9± 2.2medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.3± 1.4medium
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.2± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.2± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
DAL
41.8%
FG%
44.4
▶45.7%
29.9%
3PT %
33.1
▶33.6%
82.2
PPG
85.3
▶88.1
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
12.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.5