Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream
IND
9-5
ATL
9-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Atlanta Dream Saturday at 6/20 - 1:00 PM EDT. IND arrives on a 4-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8). ATL is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
ATL71@IND83ATL@INDupcomingIND@ATLtodayIND@ATLupcomingScouting report
IND @ ATL
Rest going in
3 days
last game Jun 16
—
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
ATL -5.2
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
ATL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
9-5
Record
9-4
#3
Conf rank
#2
+4.9
Pt diff
+6.4
W4
Streak
W1
7-3
Last 10
7-3
62.2
Power score
67.3
#7
Power rank
#5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
45
FG %
43
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.7± 4.7medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.0± 8.4medium
- Rhyne HowardATL18.7± 11.1low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.9± 4.2medium
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 4.0low
- Naz HillmonATL5.2± 2.9low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.9± 3.2medium
- Jordin CanadaATL6.9± 3.4medium
- Rhyne HowardATL3.1± 3.2low
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.3± 1.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.5low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.7medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL3.0± 2.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 1.6medium
- Angel ReeseATL1.5± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
ATL
45.5%
FG%
44.4
43.5%
33.4%
3PT %
33.1
32.9%
91.6
PPG
85.3
87.1
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
19.8
15.1
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9