Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at DAL?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+8DAL

4-3

8795

DAL

5-3

WNBAThu, May 28FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-1VegasLV -5.5

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

11.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Jessica Shepard

F · #32

27.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 1:21

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	7	2	1-1	—	—	-3	3	1
N. SmithF · #3	27	9	4-5	—	1-4	-11	12	0
A. WilsonC · #22	35	21	10-24	1-1	0-1	-12	7	3
C. GrayG · #12	34	8	2-10	1-4	3-3	-2	3	8
J. YoungG · #0	33	15	7-20	1-5	—	-15	3	7
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	8	9	3-5	1-1	2-2	+7	2	0
K. BellF · #1	9	0	—	—	—	-1	0	1
J. LoydG · #24	28	9	3-6	2-5	1-2	-6	2	1
C. CarterG · #23	19	14	6-11	2-4	—	+3	1	0
Team		87	36-82	8-20	7-12		33	21
DNP: B. Turner, J. Barker

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	38	22	8-13	0-1	6-6	+13	20	10
M. SiegristF · #20	17	8	3-7	2-3	—	-1	7	1
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	18	1	0-4	0-1	1-1	-5	0	2
P. BueckersG · #5	38	20	8-18	2-6	2-3	+15	3	6
A. FuddG · #35	38	22	9-15	3-5	1-2	+15	3	2
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	18	6	1-2	1-2	3-4	+11	0	1
A. KuierF · #34	21	12	3-5	2-3	4-4	+7	4	0
O. SimsG · #1	6	2	—	—	2-2	-7	1	0
A. JamesG · #10	6	2	1-3	0-1	—	-8	1	1
Team		95	33-67	10-22	19-22		39	23
DNP: D. Fankam Mendjiadeu, L. Yueru, J. Quinerly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

36-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-67

FG %

8-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-22

7-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL wins series 2-1

May 29

LV87@

DAL95today

Jun 16

LV66@

DAL96

Jun 26

DAL84@

LV99

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

177.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LV-20567%

DAL+17037%

18· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -5.5↗SpreadBet LV -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+2.0 since open

Total

177.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat LV 95-87. J. Shepard stuffed the line with 22 PTS, 20 REB, and 10 AST. DAL outscored the other side 27-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST

GS 42

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST

GS 24

DALstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV4th Quarter · 7:57 · 75-74

+12pp→ 55% WP

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)

DAL4th Quarter · 6:57 · 75-77

+13pp→ 58% WP

Awak Kuier · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)

LV4th Quarter · 1:21 · 86-93

+19pp→ 21% WP

Jessica Shepard · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	26	27	19	15	87
DAL	21	24	27	23	95

Period scoring

LV won 2 · DAL won 2

Carter 7

Siegrist 6

Carter 5

Bueckers 7

Wilson 8

Shepard 11

Wilson 4

Kuier 8

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

44%

36-82

49%

33-67

40%

8-20

3PT

45%

10-22

58%

7-12

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 379 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 87·DAL 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 87·DAL 95
Q4·13.5
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
LV 87·DAL 95
Q4·16.0
Chelsea Gray misses 27-foot three point jumper
LV 87·DAL 95
+0.5pp
Q4·21.2
Chennedy Carter enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 87·DAL 95
Q4·21.2
Aces timeout
LV 87·DAL 95
Q4·21.2
Alysha Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 87·DAL 95
−0.5pp
Q4·21.2
Alysha Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 87·DAL 94
Q4·21.2
Jewell Loyd shooting foul
LV 87·DAL 93
+2pp
Q4·42.4
Wings Full timeout
LV 87·DAL 93
−2pp
Q4·42.4
NaLyssa Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 87·DAL 93
Q4·42.4
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 86·DAL 93
+2pp
Q4·42.4
NaLyssa Smith misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 86·DAL 93
−3pp
Q4·42.4
(00:42.4) [Wings] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Wings] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
LV 86·DAL 93
+6pp
Q4·42.4
Jessica Shepard loose ball foul
LV 86·DAL 93
−5pp
Q4·42.4
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 86·DAL 93
−1pp
Q4·42.4
A'ja Wilson misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
LV 86·DAL 93
+2pp
Q4·53.8
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
LV 86·DAL 93
Q4·55.7
Paige Bueckers misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
LV 86·DAL 93
−2pp
Q4·1:04
NaLyssa Smith personal foulBIG MOMENT
LV 86·DAL 93
+8pp
Q4·1:19
Wings defensive team rebound
LV 86·DAL 93
Q4·1:21
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LV 86·DAL 93
+12pp
Q4·1:21
Jessica Shepard shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 86·DAL 93
−20pp
Q4·1:21
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 86·DAL 93
Q4·1:28
Paige Bueckers bad pass turnover (A'ja Wilson steals)
·
LV 84·DAL 93
−0.5pp
Q4·1:46
Jewell Loyd makes 27-foot three pointer (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
LV 84·DAL 93
−0.5pp
Q4·1:48
A'ja Wilson offensive rebound
LV 81·DAL 93
Q4·1:50
A'ja Wilson misses 18-foot jumper
LV 81·DAL 93
Q4·1:56
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 81·DAL 93
Q4·1:57
Awak Kuier blocks Jackie Young 's 3-foot layup
·
LV 81·DAL 93

Betting line

LV -5.5·O/U 177.5·LV -205/DAL +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings held off Las Vegas Aces, 95–87.

DAL +5.5 cashed (LV lost outright). Total cleared the 177.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

eFG%

shooting

48.8%

56.7%

TOV%

ball control

5.4%

11.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

20.5%

24.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

8.5%

28.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

17.7%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
32.1%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
28.6%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
31.9%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+5.23

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-135

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at DAL?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.6pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

★ best

-205DraftKings

edge +16.6pp · implied 64.5%

DAL

no live price

Book	LV	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-205★	+170	+16.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.6± 7.7high
Paige BueckersDAL
21.0± 6.2high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.1high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.0± 4.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
9.8± 4.0high
NaLyssa SmithLV
5.2± 2.8high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.7± 2.2high
Jackie YoungLV
6.3± 3.5high
Paige BueckersDAL
6.1± 2.3high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Awak KuierDAL
1.3± 1.5high
Brianna TurnerLV
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.5± 1.3high
Jewell LoydLV
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Fever88Valkyries90Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop