Jun 1, 26sim 87
8111
11(H)77
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8DAL
LV
4-3
8795
DAL
5-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 375 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings held off Las Vegas Aces, 95–87.
DAL +5.5 cashed (LV lost outright). Total cleared the 177.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
11.4Game score
21
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
DAL · top performer
Jessica Shepard
F · #32
27.5Game score
22
Pts
20
Reb
10
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV4-3
8795
DAL5-3
LV4-3DAL5-3
LV
4-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 27 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -11 | |
| 35 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 34 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
eFG%.52767 TS%.55156 AST/TO1.956 | ||||||||
| 33 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| 8 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 28 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 19 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 87 | 33 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, J. Barker | ||||||||
DAL
5-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 38 | 22 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 17 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 38 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +15 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.789 | ||||||||
| 38 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +15 | |
| 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 21 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +7 | |
| Team | 95 | 39 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 10 | ||
| DNP: D. Fankam Mendjiadeu, L. Yueru, J. Quinerly | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
49
21
Ast
23
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
May 29LV87@DAL95today
LV87@DAL95todayJun 16LV@DALupcoming
LV@DALupcomingJun 26DAL@LVupcoming
DAL@LVupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
177.5
High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LV-20567%DAL+17037%18· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+2.0 since open
Total
177.5
+2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 1:21
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
DALJ. Shepard
FGame leader · 38 minTriple-double
22 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST
How it ended
DAL beat LV 95-87. J. Shepard stuffed the line with 22 PTS, 20 REB, and 10 AST. DAL outscored the other side 27-19 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST
GS 42
Bench(4)
32 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
GS 24
DALstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST
GS 64
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 7:57 · 75-74
+12pp→ 55% WP
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
DAL4th Quarter · 6:57 · 75-77
+13pp→ 58% WP
Awak Kuier · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
LV4th Quarter · 1:21 · 86-93
+19pp→ 21% WP
Jessica Shepard · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 26 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 87 |
| DAL | 21 | 24 | 27 | 23 | 95 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · DAL won 2
26
21
Q1
Carter 7
Siegrist 6
27
24
Q2
Carter 5
Bueckers 7
19
27
Q3
Wilson 8
Shepard 11
15
23
Q4
Wilson 4
Kuier 8
LV
DAL
Shooting comparison
LV
DAL
44%
36-82
FG
49%
33-67
40%
8-20
3PT
45%
10-22
58%
7-12
FT
86%
19-22
Play-by-play · 379 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 87·DAL 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 87·DAL 95
- Q4·13.5
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
LV 87·DAL 95
- Q4·16.0
Chelsea Gray misses 27-foot three point jumper
LV 87·DAL 95
+0.5pp
- Q4·21.2
Chennedy Carter enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 87·DAL 95
- Q4·21.2
Aces timeout
LV 87·DAL 95
- Q4·21.2
Alysha Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 87·DAL 95
−0.5pp
- Q4·21.2
Alysha Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 87·DAL 94
- Q4·21.2
Jewell Loyd shooting foul
LV 87·DAL 93
+2pp
- Q4·42.4
Wings Full timeout
LV 87·DAL 93
−2pp
- Q4·42.4
NaLyssa Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 87·DAL 93
- Q4·42.4
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 86·DAL 93
+2pp
- Q4·42.4
NaLyssa Smith misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 86·DAL 93
−3pp
- Q4·42.4
(00:42.4) [Wings] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Wings] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
LV 86·DAL 93
+6pp
- Q4·42.4
Jessica Shepard loose ball foul
LV 86·DAL 93
−5pp
- Q4·42.4
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 86·DAL 93
−1pp
- Q4·42.4
A'ja Wilson misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
LV 86·DAL 93
+2pp
- Q4·53.8
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
LV 86·DAL 93
- Q4·55.7
Paige Bueckers misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
LV 86·DAL 93
−2pp
- Q4·1:04
NaLyssa Smith personal foulBIG MOMENT
LV 86·DAL 93
+8pp
- Q4·1:19
Wings defensive team rebound
LV 86·DAL 93
- Q4·1:21
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LV 86·DAL 93
+12pp
- Q4·1:21
Jessica Shepard shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 86·DAL 93
−20pp
- Q4·1:21
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 86·DAL 93
- Q4·1:28
Paige Bueckers bad pass turnover (A'ja Wilson steals)
·
LV 84·DAL 93
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:46
Jewell Loyd makes 27-foot three pointer (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
LV 84·DAL 93
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:48
A'ja Wilson offensive rebound
LV 81·DAL 93
- Q4·1:50
A'ja Wilson misses 18-foot jumper
LV 81·DAL 93
- Q4·1:56
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 81·DAL 93
- Q4·1:57
Awak Kuier blocks Jackie Young 's 3-foot layup
·
LV 81·DAL 93
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
36-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-67
44
FG %
49
8-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-22
7-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-22
21
Assists
23
5
Turnovers
10
Betting line
LV -5.5·O/U 177.5·LV -205/DAL +170
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort- Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.1%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
36%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+5.23
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-135
Close price
-170
Open no-vig
55.1%
Close no-vig
60.4%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss
Player projections
DAL vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV24.0± 11.4low
- Paige BueckersDAL17.7± 9.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV16.3± 10.0low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.4± 6.1low
- A'ja WilsonLV7.8± 6.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.4± 4.3low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.3low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.6± 3.1low
- Jackie YoungLV5.6± 3.4low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.1± 1.7low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.0± 1.4low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.2± 1.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.0± 0.9low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
DAL
49.5%
FG%
◀
44.6
46.6%
35.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
88.9
22.6
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
13.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3