Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at GS?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2GS

IND

4-3

8890

5-2

WNBAThu, May 28FinalSeriesGS wins series 2-1VegasGS -2.5

IND · top performer

Raven Johnson

G · #3

13.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Veronica Burton

G · #22

24.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 16.3

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	19	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-7	5	2
A. BostonC · #7	22	13	4-11	1-3	4-4	-2	6	4
K. MitchellG · #0	30	14	5-13	2-5	2-3	-6	1	3
L. HullG · #10	23	5	2-7	1-3	—	+2	6	0
C. ClarkG · #22	29	16	3-12	2-6	8-8	-2	4	6
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	16	2	1-4	—	—	-2	1	1
M. TimpsonF · #21	15	7	3-3	—	1-2	+2	5	2
S. CunninghamG · #8	25	11	4-11	1-7	2-2	+1	2	2
R. JohnsonG · #3	21	16	7-10	2-3	—	+4	4	2
Team		88	30-73	9-28	19-21		34	22
DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas, T. Harris

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	18	0	0-2	0-2	—	0	3	0
G. WilliamsF · #1	28	19	6-14	0-4	7-10	-2	6	6
K. StokesC · #41	26	4	2-4	—	—	-2	4	2
K. CharlesG · #6	15	7	3-5	1-2	—	-8	4	1
V. BurtonG · #22	29	25	7-13	1-3	10-12	-2	6	3
Bench
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	14	8	3-8	2-3	—	+2	0	3
L. AmihereF · #3	14	3	1-5	—	1-2	+4	5	1
J. SalaunF · #13	24	19	7-12	3-5	2-4	+1	7	3
T. HayesG · #15	5	0	—	—	—	+6	1	0
K. ChenG · #2	11	2	1-1	—	—	+4	1	3
J. JocyteG · #4	16	3	1-4	1-2	—	+7	0	2
Team		90	31-68	8-21	20-28		37	24
DNP: A. Prechtel, N. Mwenentanda

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

Home

30-73

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-68

FG %

9-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-21

19-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 2-1

May 22

GS82@

IND90

May 29

IND88@

GS90today

Jul 16

GS88@

IND75

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

167.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+11048%

GS-13057%

7· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -2.5↗SpreadBet GS -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

167.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat IND 90-88. V. Burton paced them with 25 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. Kaila Charles's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST

GS 34

Bench(4)

36 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 32

GSstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 23 REB · 12 AST

GS 51

Bench(6)

35 PTS · 14 REB · 12 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS4th Quarter · 8:08 · 69-71

+22pp→ 59% WP

Myisha Hines-Allen · enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell

GS4th Quarter · 2.9 · 88-90

+22pp→ 96% WP

Aliyah Boston · misses 3-foot turnaround jump shot

IND4th Quarter · 16.3 · 88-90

+25pp→ 27% WP

Kaila Charles · enters the game for Juste Jocyte

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	14	30	23	21	88
GS	21	23	21	25	90

Period scoring

IND won 2 · GS won 2

Clark 5

Burton 8

Cunningham 9

Williams 8

Boston 8

Burton 5

Boston 5

Williams 9

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

41%

30-73

46%

31-68

32%

9-28

3PT

38%

8-21

90%

19-21

71%

20-28

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 88·GS 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 88·GS 90
Q4·0.1
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 88·GS 90
Q4·0.1
Aliyah Boston misses 13-foot two point shot
IND 88·GS 90
+3pp
Q4·0.6
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Laeticia AmihereBIG MOMENT
·
IND 88·GS 90
+24pp
Q4·0.6
Fever Full timeout
IND 88·GS 90
+2pp
Q4·1.2
Sophie Cunningham vs. Kaila Charles (Caitlin Clark gains possession)
· ·
IND 88·GS 90
+2pp
Q4·1.2
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
IND 88·GS 90
Q4·1.3
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 88·GS 90
Q4·2.9
Aliyah Boston misses 3-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
IND 88·GS 90
+22pp
Q4·16.3
Kaila Charles enters the game for Juste JocyteBIG MOMENT
·
IND 88·GS 90
−25pp
Q4·16.3
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 88·GS 90
+3pp
Q4·16.3
Golden State Valkyries offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 88·GS 89
−10pp
Q4·16.3
Gabby Williams misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 88·GS 89
−7pp
Q4·16.3
Kelsey Mitchell personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 88·GS 89
+18pp
Q4·17.6
Juste Jocyte enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
IND 88·GS 89
Q4·17.6
Golden State Valkyries timeout
IND 88·GS 89
Q4·17.6
Sophie Cunningham makes driving layup (Caitlin Clark assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 88·GS 89
−20pp
Q4·24.8
Kaila Charles enters the game for Juste Jocyte
·
IND 86·GS 89
Q4·24.8
(00:24.8) [Golden State Valkyries] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Golden State Valkyries] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
IND 86·GS 89
+10pp
Q4·24.8
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
IND 86·GS 89
−5pp
Q4·24.8
(00:24.8) [Fever] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
IND 86·GS 89
+5pp
Q4·24.8
Veronica Burton offensive foul turnover
IND 86·GS 89
Q4·24.8
Veronica Burton offensive chargeBIG MOMENT
IND 86·GS 89
−10pp
Q4·24.8
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 86·GS 89
+8pp
Q4·24.8
Juste Jocyte enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
IND 85·GS 89
Q4·24.8
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 85·GS 89
−2pp
Q4·24.8
Veronica Burton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 84·GS 89
−13pp
Q4·31.3
Janelle Salaun makes running layup (Gabby Williams assists)
·
IND 84·GS 89
+3pp
Q4·38.3
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
IND 84·GS 87
+2pp

Betting line

GS -2.5·O/U 167.5·IND +110/GS -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Indiana Fever, 90–88. Decided by 2.

IND +2.5 cashed (GS won by 2). Total cleared the 167.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

eFG%

shooting

47.3%

51.5%

TOV%

ball control

11.8%

12.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

19.4%

22.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

26.0%

29.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Sophie CunninghamIND · G
eFG%.59688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
66.3%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
63.2%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.3%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.91

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-102

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at GS?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.9pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

IND

no live price

★ best

-130DraftKings

edge +7.9pp · implied 54.3%

Book	IND	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+110	-130★	+7.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Aliyah BostonIND
16.0± 6.7high

Rebounds

Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Tyasha HarrisIND
3.0± 1.6high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 1.1high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Aces87Wings95Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop