Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ATL

PHX

2-5

8082

ATL

4-1

WNBASun, May 24FinalSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasATL -5.5

PHX · top performer

Alyssa Thomas

F · #25

20.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jordin Canada

G · #3

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 1:11

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	36	20	9-13	—	2-2	-1	12	7
N. MackF · #4	16	6	3-5	—	—	+4	7	1
N. BrochantF · #1	31	6	3-7	0-2	—	0	5	2
K. CopperG · #2	30	20	6-16	1-6	7-8	-8	3	1
J. NogicG · #29	21	11	3-9	2-4	3-3	-2	0	1
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	24	4	2-7	0-3	—	-7	3	1
M. SuarezF · #77	10	0	—	—	—	-2	3	0
K. LinskensC · #31	12	10	3-4	1-2	3-3	+5	2	0
K. WilliamsG · #23	20	3	0-5	0-4	3-3	+1	1	1
Team		80	29-66	4-21	18-19		36	14
DNP: V. Ayayi, S. Whitcomb, Q. Carter, M. Akoa Makani

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	23	4	2-2	—	0-1	-1	4	0
A. ReeseF · #5	32	17	6-16	0-1	5-10	+4	10	4
A. GrayG · #15	36	18	7-15	2-5	2-3	+7	1	0
J. CanadaG · #3	31	11	4-8	0-2	3-5	+12	7	14
R. HowardG · #10	34	21	7-15	6-12	1-2	+2	8	0
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	6	0	0-1	—	—	-11	0	0
M. OkotC · #11	7	0	0-2	—	—	-6	2	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	14	3	1-1	1-1	—	-4	1	2
A. NyeG · #32	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	2	3	1-1	1-1	—	0	1	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	16	5	2-7	1-4	—	+7	4	2
Team		82	30-68	11-26	11-21		38	22
DNP: B. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

29-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-68

FG %

4-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-26

18-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

May 24

PHX80@

ATL82today

Aug 5

PHX@

ATLupcoming

Aug 23

ATL@

PHXupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

168.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+19534%

ATL-23870%

7· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

168.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat PHX 82-80. J. Canada led with 11 PTS, 7 REB, 14 AST. PHX outscored the other side 25-13 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 27 REB · 12 AST

GS 44

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST

GS 15

ATLstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

11 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 1:03 · 75-75

+20pp→ 64% WP

Kiana Williams · shooting foul

ATL4th Quarter · 24.9 · 75-79

+20pp→ 89% WP

Rhyne Howard · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 15.4 · 78-79

+18pp→ 89% WP

Kahleah Copper · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	25	19	13	23	80
ATL	13	24	12	33	82

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · ATL won 2

Copper 10

Howard 6

Nogic 8

Gray 8

Linskens 5

Howard 6

Copper 8

Howard 9

PHX

ATL

Shooting comparison

PHX

ATL

44%

29-66

44%

30-68

19%

4-21

3PT

42%

11-26

95%

18-19

52%

11-21

Play-by-play · 418 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 80·ATL 82
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
PHX 80·ATL 82
+7pp
Q4·0.2
Alyssa Thomas bad pass turnover (Angel Reese steals)
·
PHX 80·ATL 82
Q4·0.5
(00:00.5) [Mercury] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
PHX 80·ATL 82
−0.9pp
Q4·0.5
Noemie Brochant enters the game for Marta Suarez
·
PHX 80·ATL 82
−2pp
Q4·1.9
Natasha Mack offensive rebound
PHX 80·ATL 82
Q4·3.5
Kahleah Copper misses free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
PHX 80·ATL 82
+9pp
Q4·3.5
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
PHX 80·ATL 82
−6pp
Q4·3.5
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 3
PHX 79·ATL 82
−2pp
Q4·3.5
Marta Suarez enters the game for Kiana Williams
·
PHX 78·ATL 82
Q4·3.5
Natasha Mack enters the game for Noemie Brochant
·
PHX 78·ATL 82
−4pp
Q4·3.5
(00:03.5) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Dream] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 78·ATL 82
+5pp
Q4·3.5
Dream Full timeout
PHX 78·ATL 82
Q4·3.5
Angel Reese shooting foul
PHX 78·ATL 82
−1pp
Q4·7.9
Kiana Williams enters the game for Natasha Mack
·
PHX 78·ATL 82
Q4·7.9
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 78·ATL 82
Q4·7.9
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 78·ATL 82
−2pp
Q4·7.9
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 78·ATL 81
+0.7pp
Q4·7.9
Noemie Brochant personal take foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 78·ATL 80
+10pp
Q4·12.0
Naz Hillmon offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 78·ATL 80
+12pp
Q4·15.4
Angel Reese misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 78·ATL 80
−17pp
Q4·15.4
Natasha Mack enters the game for Kiana Williams
·
PHX 78·ATL 80
Q4·15.4
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Isobel Borlase
·
PHX 78·ATL 80
Q4·15.4
Angel Reese makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 78·ATL 80
+2pp
Q4·15.4
Kahleah Copper personal take foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 78·ATL 79
+18pp
Q4·20.3
Kahleah Copper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 78·ATL 79
−18pp
Q4·24.0
Mercury timeout
PHX 75·ATL 79
Q4·24.9
Rhyne Howard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 75·ATL 79
+20pp
Q4·43.7
Angel Reese defensive rebound
PHX 75·ATL 76
+3pp
Q4·46.8
Noemie Brochant misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 75·ATL 76
+9pp

Betting line

ATL -5.5·O/U 168.5·PHX +195/ATL -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off Phoenix Mercury, 82–80. Decided by 2.

PHX +5.5 cashed (ATL won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 168.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

ATL

eFG%

shooting

47.0%

52.2%

TOV%

ball control

16.8%

15.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.7%

30.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

27.3%

16.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
72.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
71.3%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
70.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.62

CLV pp

Open price

-225

Close price

-218

Open no-vig

66.4%

Close no-vig

65.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

PHX

no live price

ATL

no live price

Book	PHX	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+195	-238	+1.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
20.1± 8.1high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 4.3high
Rhyne HowardATL
15.4± 6.9high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.6± 3.1high
Natasha MackPHX
7.4± 3.3high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.2± 2.8high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Jordin CanadaATL
7.7± 3.6high
Rhyne HowardATL
3.4± 1.3high

Blocks

Natasha MackPHX
1.3± 1.1high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.7± 1.1high
Shatori Walker-KimbroughATL
0.7± 1.1low

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.1± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop