Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+12SEA

WSH

2-3

8597

SEA

3-4

WNBASun, May 24FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasWSH -4.5

WSH · top performer

Sonia Citron

G · #22

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Natisha Hiedeman

G · #2

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:51

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. OnyenwereF · #12	17	6	1-3	0-1	4-4	+6	0	0
K. IriafenF · #44	26	13	4-8	1-1	4-6	-10	4	0
S. AustinC · #0	29	12	4-7	1-2	3-3	-10	4	0
S. CitronG · #22	32	16	3-6	0-2	10-11	-8	5	2
G. AmooreG · #8	26	13	2-9	1-7	8-8	-13	2	6
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	12	13	5-6	1-1	2-3	+3	3	1
L. BettsC · #51	13	6	2-4	—	2-4	-7	3	0
R. HarmonG · #3	3	2	1-2	0-1	—	-2	1	0
L. OlsenG · #33	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	2	2
C. McMahonG · #23	16	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-8	2	1
C. ProsperG · #18	22	2	1-8	0-3	—	-8	0	2
Team		85	23-57	4-20	35-41		26	14
DNP: A. Wilson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	20	5	2-4	1-3	—	+6	3	1
S. DolsonC · #31	26	16	3-3	2-2	8-8	+16	3	2
N. HiedemanG · #2	28	24	7-12	4-6	6-6	+4	1	5
F. JohnsonG · #4	25	17	4-14	2-7	7-7	+4	6	1
J. MelbourneG · #5	25	3	0-6	0-2	3-4	+6	2	6
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	18	3	1-2	1-2	—	+12	2	2
M. HolmesF · #54	14	2	1-2	—	—	-4	4	0
A. FamC · #11	20	10	4-7	0-1	2-2	+6	2	0
L. BrownG · #8	8	7	1-1	1-1	4-5	-3	0	1
Z. CookeG · #7	17	10	3-8	2-4	2-2	+13	1	2
Team		97	26-59	13-28	32-34		24	20
DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

23-57

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-59

FG %

4-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-28

35-41

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

32-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 24

WSH85@

SEA97today

May 28

WSH78@

SEA64

Jul 12

SEA79@

WSH84

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

157.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-20567%

SEA+17037%

12· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -4.5↗SpreadBet WSH -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+1.0 since open

Total

157.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat WSH 97-85. N. Hiedeman led with 24 PTS, 1 REB, 5 AST. SEA outscored the other side 23-13 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 47

Bench(6)

25 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST

GS 14

SEAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA2nd Quarter · 8:03 · 28-31

+7pp→ 58% WP

Natisha Hiedeman · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lexie Brown assists)

SEA2nd Quarter · 2:51 · 34-42

+8pp→ 75% WP

Stefanie Dolson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Katie Lou Samuelson assists)

SEA2nd Quarter · 38.3 · 36-47

+7pp→ 85% WP

Natisha Hiedeman · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Katie Lou Samuelson assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	24	13	17	31	85
SEA	26	23	27	21	97

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · SEA won 3

Austin 9

Hiedeman 10

Dugalic 4

Hiedeman 8

Iriafen 5

Johnson 8

Citron 10

Austin 8

WSH

SEA

Shooting comparison

WSH

SEA

40%

23-57

44%

26-59

20%

4-20

3PT

46%

13-28

85%

35-41

94%

32-34

Play-by-play · 437 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 85·SEA 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 85·SEA 97
Q4·1.3
Cotie McMahon makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 85·SEA 97
Q4·1.3
Cotie McMahon makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 84·SEA 97
Q4·1.3
Flau'jae Johnson loose ball foul
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·1.3
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·3.3
Shakira Austin misses 19-foot step back jumpshot
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·15.4
shot clock turnover
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·16.4
Storm offensive team rebound
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·17.5
Flau'jae Johnson misses 21-foot turnaround jump shot
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·19.9
Storm offensive team rebound
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·19.9
Shakira Austin blocks Jade Melbourne 's 5-foot layup
·
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·39.4
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 83·SEA 97
Q4·39.4
Awa Fam enters the game for Jordan Horston
·
WSH 82·SEA 97
Q4·39.4
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 82·SEA 97
Q4·39.4
Sonia Citron misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 82·SEA 97
Q4·39.4
Jade Melbourne personal foul
WSH 82·SEA 97
Q4·40.3
Stefanie Dolson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
WSH 82·SEA 97
Q4·56.0
Flau'jae Johnson defensive rebound
WSH 82·SEA 94
Q4·1:02
Stefanie Dolson blocks Cassandre Prosper 's 5-foot driving layup
·
WSH 82·SEA 94
Q4·1:18
Flau'jae Johnson bad pass turnover (Shakira Austin steals)
·
WSH 82·SEA 94
Q4·1:42
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 82·SEA 94
Q4·1:42
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 81·SEA 94
Q4·1:42
Stefanie Dolson shooting foul
WSH 80·SEA 94
Q4·1:55
Jade Melbourne out of bounds bad pass turnover
WSH 80·SEA 94
Q4·2:13
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 80·SEA 94
Q4·2:13
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 79·SEA 94
Q4·2:13
Kiki Iriafen misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 79·SEA 94
Q4·2:13
Stefanie Dolson shooting foul
WSH 79·SEA 94
Q4·2:22
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
WSH 79·SEA 94

Betting line

WSH -4.5·O/U 157.5·WSH -205/SEA +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

eattle Storm held off Washington Mystics, 97–85.

SEA +4.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total cleared the 157.5 OVER by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

SEA

eFG%

shooting

43.9%

55.1%

TOV%

ball control

14.8%

15.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

22.2%

13.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

61.4%

54.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Sonia CitronWSH · G
TS%.63984
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
64.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.1%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.13

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+124

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.2pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

SEA

★ best

+170DraftKings

edge +24.2pp · implied 35.5%

Book	WSH	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	-205	+170★	+24.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Shakira AustinWSH
16.8± 5.6high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high
Sonia CitronWSH
15.6± 8.7high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.8± 3.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.0± 3.6high

Assists

Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
3.8± 1.0high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.8± 2.0high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.6± 1.3high
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
1.3± 1.5high
Awa FamSEA
1.1± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington MysticsSeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop