Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at NY?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+15DAL

DAL

4-3

9176

3-3

WNBASun, May 24FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasNY -5.5

DAL · top performer

Azzi Fudd

G · #35

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Satou Sabally

F · #0

12.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:26

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	33	10	5-9	0-1	0-1	+21	11	6
A. SmithF · #8	15	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	2	3
O. SimsG · #1	8	0	—	—	—	+3	0	2
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	38	19	5-20	5-13	4-6	+18	4	5
P. BueckersG · #5	36	24	7-13	2-4	8-8	+8	6	2
Bench
M. SiegristF · #20	6	2	1-1	—	—	+2	1	0
A. KuierF · #34	24	10	2-3	2-3	4-4	+17	6	1
L. YueruC · #28	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	1	0
A. FuddG · #35	32	24	9-15	6-12	—	+22	2	3
A. JamesG · #10	4	2	1-2	—	—	-3	1	0
Team		91	30-65	15-35	16-19		34	22
DNP: A. Clark, D. Fankam Mendjiadeu, J. Quinerly, C. Verona

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	34	14	7-18	0-2	—	-17	11	3
S. SaballyF · #0	25	20	6-14	3-6	5-5	-17	2	2
J. JonesC · #35	29	14	5-11	0-3	4-5	-7	7	2
M. JohannesG · #23	22	0	0-3	0-3	—	-1	3	5
S. IonescuG · #20	31	11	4-15	2-5	1-2	-13	5	7
Bench
A. MaleyF · #24	11	0	0-2	0-2	—	+4	3	0
R. CarreraF · #14	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
H. XuC · #21	12	6	2-4	2-3	—	-5	2	0
R. GardnerG · #7	16	4	2-2	—	—	-8	1	0
P. AstierG · #18	18	7	2-3	1-2	2-2	-11	0	1
Team		76	28-72	8-26	12-14		34	21
DNP: R. Allen

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

30-65

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-72

FG %

15-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-26

16-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

May 24

DAL91@

NY76today

Jul 8

DAL88@

NY77

Jul 17

NY0@

DAL0

Jul 21

NY99@

DAL98

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

179.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+20033%

NY-24571%

15· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -5.5↗SpreadBet NY -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

179.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat NY 91-76. A. Fudd led with 24 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST. DAL outscored the other side 28-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST

GS 42

Bench(5)

38 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 38

NYstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL3rd Quarter · 6:26 · 55-51

+9pp→ 50% WP

Azzi Fudd · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Arike Ogunbowale assists)

DAL3rd Quarter · 5:26 · 58-51

+10pp→ 64% WP

Azzi Fudd · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jessica Shepard assists)

NY3rd Quarter · 3:26 · 63-53

+9pp→ 18% WP

Marine Johannes · enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	17	26	28	20	91
NY	20	24	17	15	76

Period scoring

DAL won 3 · NY won 1

Bueckers 5

Xu 6

Ogunbowale 10

Johannes 9

Fudd 17

Sabally 10

Bueckers 11

Jones 9

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

46%

30-65

39%

28-72

43%

15-35

3PT

31%

8-26

84%

16-19

86%

12-14

Play-by-play · 384 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 91·NY 76
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 91·NY 76
Q4·11.1
shot clock turnover
DAL 91·NY 76
Q4·33.4
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
DAL 91·NY 76
Q4·37.8
Anneli Maley misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 91·NY 76
Q4·49.3
Jessica Shepard makes layup (Azzi Fudd assists)
·
DAL 91·NY 76
Q4·1:05
Rebekah Gardner makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Raquel Carrera assists)
·
DAL 89·NY 76
Q4·1:21
Raquel Carrera enters the game for Jonquel Jones
·
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:21
Pauline Astier enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:21
Han Xu enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:21
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Satou Sabally
·
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:21
Liberty defensive team rebound
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:21
Arike Ogunbowale misses driving layup
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:43
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:46
Jonquel Jones misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:48
Breanna Stewart offensive rebound
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:51
Anneli Maley misses 24-foot three point jumper
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:55
Liberty offensive team rebound
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·1:56
Satou Sabally misses driving layup
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·2:07
Jessica Shepard makes 3-foot floating jump shot
DAL 89·NY 74
Q4·2:30
Awak Kuier defensive rebound
DAL 87·NY 74
Q4·2:34
Awak Kuier blocks Sabrina Ionescu 's 4-foot driving layup
·
DAL 87·NY 74
Q4·2:50
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 87·NY 74
Q4·2:50
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 86·NY 74
Q4·2:50
Anneli Maley personal foul
DAL 85·NY 74
Q4·3:02
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
DAL 85·NY 74
Q4·3:05
Azzi Fudd blocks Breanna Stewart 's 10-foot pullup jump shot
·
DAL 85·NY 74
−1pp
Q4·3:17
Azzi Fudd personal foul
DAL 85·NY 74
+0.7pp
Q4·3:17
Anneli Maley offensive rebound
DAL 85·NY 74
Q4·3:21
Sabrina Ionescu misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 85·NY 74
−0.7pp

Betting line

NY -5.5·O/U 179.5·DAL +200/NY -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings went into New York Liberty and beat them, 91–76.

DAL +5.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 179.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

eFG%

shooting

57.7%

44.4%

TOV%

ball control

9.8%

10.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

20.0%

26.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

24.6%

16.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
67.3%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
69.8%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
70.5%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.78

CLV pp

Open price

+260

Close price

+250

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

27.4%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at NY?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.1pp

best edge · DAL · DraftKings

DAL

★ best

+200DraftKings

edge +5.1pp · implied 31.9%

no live price

Book	DAL	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+200★	-245	+5.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.7± 8.6high
Paige BueckersDAL
21.6± 6.0high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.4± 8.4medium

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.2± 4.3high
Jonquel JonesNY
9.7± 3.0high
Breanna StewartNY
8.7± 2.8high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.3± 3.2high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.5± 2.1medium

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.0high
Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.5high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 1.3high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop