Aug 31, 25sim 95
1969
14(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4GS
DAL
9-33
8084
GS
23-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Dallas Wings, 84–80. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
23.6Game score
27
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
GS · top performer
Janelle Salaun
F · #13
13.7Game score
19
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL9-33
8084
GS23-18
DAL9-33GS23-18
DAL
9-33
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +5 | |
| 34 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 29 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | |
| 34 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 34 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +4 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| Team | 80 | 31 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 9 | ||
| DNP: A. Petty, C. Williams | ||||||||
GS
23-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 30 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -10 | |
| 19 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 24 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | |
| 23 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +17 | |
| 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +28 | |
| Team | 84 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 15 | ||
| DNP: E. Kitley | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
45
21
Ast
22
Season series
GS wins series 3-1
Jun 18GS71@DAL80
GS71@DAL80Jul 26DAL76@GS86
DAL76@GS86Aug 24GS90@DAL81
GS90@DAL81Sep 5DAL80@GS84today
DAL80@GS84todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 3:34
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 34 min
27 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
GSJ. Salaun
FGame leader · 37 min
19 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
GS beat DAL 84-80. J. Salaun led with 19 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. DAL outscored the other side 21-11 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 27 REB · 20 AST
GS 67
Bench(3)
7 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
GSstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 18 REB · 13 AST
GS 40
Bench(5)
35 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST
GS 28
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 8:31 · 62-63
+12pp→ 56% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)
DAL4th Quarter · 4:18 · 70-72
+15pp→ 50% WP
Laeticia Amihere · shooting foul
DAL4th Quarter · 3:34 · 73-72
+15pp→ 67% WP
Veronica Burton · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 20 | 21 | 21 | 18 | 80 |
| GS | 21 | 11 | 26 | 26 | 84 |
Period scoring
DAL won 1 · GS won 3
20
21
Q1
Siegrist 7
Billings 6
21
11
Q2
Jones 7
Siegrist 32
21
26
Q3
Bueckers 10
Leite 6
18
26
Q4
Bueckers 11
Salaun 9
DAL
GS
Shooting comparison
DAL
GS
42%
30-71
FG
45%
29-65
20%
5-25
3PT
35%
7-20
75%
15-20
FT
83%
19-23
Play-by-play · 398 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 80·GS 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 80·GS 84
- Q4·0.1
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 80·GS 84
+0.5pp
- Q4·1.4
Paige Bueckers misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 80·GS 84
+4pp
- Q4·7.2
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 80·GS 84
−2pp
- Q4·7.2
Kaila Charles enters the game for Carla Leite
·
DAL 80·GS 83
- Q4·7.2
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 80·GS 83
+0.7pp
- Q4·7.2
Grace Berger personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·GS 82
+7pp
- Q4·7.7
Carla Leite enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
DAL 80·GS 82
- Q4·7.7
Golden State Valkyries timeout
DAL 80·GS 82
- Q4·7.7
Paige Bueckers makes layup (Haley Jones assists)
·
DAL 80·GS 82
−3pp
- Q4·11.4
Wings timeout
DAL 78·GS 82
- Q4·11.4
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 78·GS 82
−3pp
- Q4·11.4
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 78·GS 81
+0.9pp
- Q4·11.4
Haley Jones personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 78·GS 80
+9pp
- Q4·12.1
Paige Bueckers makes driving layup (Haley Jones assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 78·GS 80
−6pp
- Q4·15.0
Wings Full timeout
DAL 76·GS 80
- Q4·15.0
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 76·GS 80
−2pp
- Q4·15.0
Paige Bueckers enters the game for Amy Okonkwo
·
DAL 76·GS 79
- Q4·15.0
Maddy Siegrist enters the game for Diamond Miller
·
DAL 76·GS 79
- Q4·15.0
Kaila Charles enters the game for Carla Leite
·
DAL 76·GS 79
- Q4·15.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
DAL 76·GS 79
−2pp
- Q4·15.0
Janelle Salaun misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 76·GS 79
−2pp
- Q4·15.0
Haley Jones personal take foul
DAL 76·GS 79
+5pp
- Q4·17.6
Amy Okonkwo enters the game for Maddy Siegrist
·
DAL 76·GS 79
- Q4·17.6
Diamond Miller enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
DAL 76·GS 79
- Q4·17.6
Carla Leite enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
DAL 76·GS 79
- Q4·17.6
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
DAL 76·GS 79
- Q4·18.2
Paige Bueckers makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Haley Jones assists)
·
DAL 76·GS 79
−2pp
- Q4·22.3
Kaila Charles enters the game for Carla Leite
·
DAL 74·GS 79
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
GS
Home
30-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-65
42
FG %
45
5-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-20
15-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-23
21
Assists
22
9
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Kiah StokesGS4.8± 4.1low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Alanna SmithDAL1.0± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
GS
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.3%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
36.1%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
86.4
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
10.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1