Aug 11, 25sim 94
1886
17(H)94
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16PHX
CON
5-23
6682
PHX
18-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Connecticut Sun, 82–66.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Leila Lacan
G · #47
11.6Game score
10
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
19.5Game score
13
Pts
12
Reb
12
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON5-23
6682
PHX18-11
CON5-23PHX18-11
CON
5-23
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 30 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -21 | |
| 21 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -21 | |
| 30 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | |
| 22 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 22 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
| 21 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -19 | |
| Team | 66 | 35 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 17 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall | ||||||||
PHX
18-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +20 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +11 | |
| 29 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +18 | |
| 28 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 21 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +20 | |
| 23 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 82 | 39 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 18 | ||
| DNP: K. Laksa | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
45
16
Ast
17
Season series
PHX wins series 2-1
Jun 18PHX83@CON75
PHX83@CON75Aug 6CON66@PHX82today
CON66@PHX82todaySep 6PHX84@CON87
PHX84@CON87Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ PHX
CONL. Lacan
GGame leader · 22 min
10 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 32 minTriple-double
13 PTS · 12 REB · 12 AST
How it ended
PHX beat CON 82-66. A. Thomas stuffed the line with 13 PTS, 12 REB, and 12 AST. PHX outscored the other side 26-6 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST
GS 27
Bench(6)
15 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST
GS 15
PHXstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST
GS 53
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 15 REB · 1 AST
GS 9
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 6 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 66 |
| PHX | 26 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 82 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · PHX won 1
6
26
Q1
Lacan 2
Bonner 9
22
18
Q2
Mabrey 11
Thomas 4
20
20
Q3
Charles 7
Sabally 10
18
18
Q4
Sheldon 7
Bonner 5
CON
PHX
Shooting comparison
CON
PHX
35%
25-72
FG
45%
29-64
20%
5-25
3PT
40%
8-20
92%
11-12
FT
84%
16-19
Play-by-play · 397 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 66·PHX 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 66·PHX 82
- Q4·4.6
shot clock turnover
CON 66·PHX 82
- Q4·30.6
Jacy Sheldon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bria Hartley assists)
· ·
CON 66·PHX 82
- Q4·39.3
Jacy Sheldon offensive rebound
·
CON 63·PHX 82
- Q4·43.4
Aneesah Morrow misses 24-foot three point jumper
CON 63·PHX 82
- Q4·50.4
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
CON 63·PHX 82
- Q4·52.3
Satou Sabally misses 13-foot jumper
CON 63·PHX 82
- Q4·1:09
Bria Hartley makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Jacy Sheldon assists)
· ·
CON 63·PHX 82
- Q4·1:24
Satou Sabally makes two point shot
CON 61·PHX 82
- Q4·1:29
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·1:33
Bria Hartley misses 24-foot three point jumper
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·1:49
Lexi Held enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·1:49
Alyssa Thomas out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·1:54
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·1:54
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses two point shot
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·1:54
Olivia Nelson-Ododa offensive rebound
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·1:57
Bria Hartley misses 28-foot three point jumper
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·2:10
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 61·PHX 80
- Q4·2:10
Lindsay Allen enters the game for Marina Mabrey
·
CON 61·PHX 79
- Q4·2:10
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
CON 61·PHX 79
- Q4·2:10
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 61·PHX 79
- Q4·2:10
Bria Hartley shooting foul
CON 61·PHX 78
- Q4·2:13
Olivia Nelson-Ododa lost ball turnover (Alyssa Thomas steals)
·
CON 61·PHX 78
- Q4·2:24
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
CON 61·PHX 78
- Q4·2:27
Sami Whitcomb misses 26-foot three point jumper
CON 61·PHX 78
- Q4·2:40
Marina Mabrey makes driving layup
CON 61·PHX 78
- Q4·3:00
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 59·PHX 78
- Q4·3:00
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 59·PHX 77
- Q4·3:00
Jacy Sheldon shooting foul
·
CON 59·PHX 76
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
25-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-64
35
FG %
45
5-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-20
11-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-19
16
Assists
17
17
Turnovers
18
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 9 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Kennedy BurkeCON2.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
PHX
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶42.3%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶31.4%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶83.7
17.9
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4