Aug 29, 25sim 96
1979
11(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6CHI
CHI
9-26
9185
NY
22-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hicago Sky went into New York Liberty and beat them, 91–85.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Kamilla Cardoso
C · #10
27.4Game score
22
Pts
15
Reb
5
Ast
NY · top performer
Jonquel Jones
C · #35
23.3Game score
25
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI9-26
9185
NY22-14
CHI9-26NY22-14
CHI
9-26
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 29 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +7 | |
| 34 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +7 | |
| 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 27 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10 | |
| 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +7 | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| Team | 91 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 13 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, C. Vandersloot, H. Van Lith | ||||||||
NY
22-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 32 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -13 | |
ORB%.08986 DRB%.25386 eFG%.45529 | ||||||||
| 32 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | +3 | |
| 27 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 30 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 17 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 85 | 27 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 13 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, B. Stewart, N. Sabally | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
42
17
Ast
22
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
May 23NY99@CHI74
NY99@CHI74Jun 11CHI66@NY85
CHI66@NY85Aug 21CHI91@NY85today
CHI91@NY85todaySep 12NY91@CHI86
NY91@CHI86Headlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 4:00
CHIK. Cardoso
CGame leader · 34 min
22 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST
NYJ. Jones
CGame leader · 32 min
25 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
CHI beat NY 91-85. K. Cardoso led with 22 PTS, 15 REB, 5 AST. CHI outscored the other side 26-17 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST
GS 73
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST
GS 6
NYstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST
GS 54
Bench(4)
17 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI4th Quarter · 4:00 · 78-77
+19pp→ 55% WP
Rebecca Allen · blocks Leonie Fiebich 's 2-foot driving layup
NY4th Quarter · 1:35 · 86-85
+16pp→ 47% WP
Ariel Atkins · misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI4th Quarter · 44.4 · 86-85
+16pp→ 81% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 22 | 22 | 21 | 26 | 91 |
| NY | 23 | 23 | 22 | 17 | 85 |
Period scoring
CHI won 1 · NY won 3
22
23
Q1
Onyenwere 5
Jones 7
22
23
Q2
Cardoso 6
Cloud 6
21
22
Q3
Cardoso 8
Jones 10
26
17
Q4
Reese 11
Jones 5
CHI
NY
Shooting comparison
CHI
NY
50%
31-62
FG
42%
30-72
22%
4-18
3PT
35%
13-37
86%
25-29
FT
80%
12-15
Play-by-play · 400 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 91·NY 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 91·NY 85
−0.8pp
- Q4·18.1
Ariel Atkins defensive rebound
CHI 91·NY 85
−0.6pp
- Q4·21.8
Marine Johannes misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 91·NY 85
−2pp
- Q4·26.4
Angel Reese makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 91·NY 85
- Q4·26.4
Sky offensive team rebound
CHI 90·NY 85
+1pp
- Q4·26.4
Angel Reese misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 90·NY 85
+0.9pp
- Q4·26.4
Natasha Cloud enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
CHI 90·NY 85
- Q4·26.4
Sabrina Ionescu personal take foul
CHI 90·NY 85
−3pp
- Q4·29.6
Rebecca Allen defensive rebound
CHI 90·NY 85
−1pp
- Q4·33.0
Sabrina Ionescu misses three point shot
CHI 90·NY 85
−3pp
- Q4·36.1
Liberty Full timeout
CHI 90·NY 85
- Q4·36.1
Angel Reese makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 90·NY 85
+3pp
- Q4·36.1
Marine Johannes enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
CHI 89·NY 85
- Q4·36.1
Angel Reese makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 89·NY 85
−1pp
- Q4·36.1
Sabrina Ionescu personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 88·NY 85
−6pp
- Q4·36.1
Angel Reese defensive rebound
CHI 88·NY 85
−3pp
- Q4·38.0
Natasha Cloud misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 88·NY 85
−9pp
- Q4·44.4
Liberty timeout
CHI 88·NY 85
- Q4·44.4
Ariel Atkins makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 88·NY 85
+8pp
- Q4·44.4
Ariel Atkins makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 87·NY 85
−2pp
- Q4·44.4
Sabrina Ionescu personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 86·NY 85
−16pp
- Q4·46.3
Kamilla Cardoso vs. Leonie Fiebich (Ariel Atkins gains possession)
· ·
CHI 86·NY 85
- Q4·46.3
Sky offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 86·NY 85
−10pp
- Q4·48.9
Angel Reese misses 8-foot two point shot
CHI 86·NY 85
−4pp
- Q4·56.9
Sky Full timeout
CHI 86·NY 85
- Q4·56.9
Sabrina Ionescu kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
CHI 86·NY 85
+11pp
- Q4·1:12
Angel Reese defensive rebound
CHI 86·NY 85
−3pp
- Q4·1:16
Jonquel Jones misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CHI 86·NY 85
−8pp
- Q4·1:33
Liberty Full timeout
CHI 86·NY 85
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
NY
Home
31-62
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-72
50
FG %
42
4-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-37
25-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-15
17
Assists
22
13
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort- Jonquel JonesNY · CORB%.08986
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI13.3± 9.9low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Jacy SheldonCHI1.1± 2.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
NY
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶45.6%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶35.3%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶86.6
19.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.7
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4