Aug 6, 25sim 94
1866
11(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8LV
CON
5-25
8694
LV
18-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Connecticut Sun, 94–86.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Saniya Rivers
G · #22
17.2Game score
17
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
27.2Game score
32
Pts
20
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON5-25
8694
LV18-14
CON5-25LV18-14
CON
5-25
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 29 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -15 | |
| 29 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 33 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | |
| 25 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 15 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 28 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +7 | |
| Team | 86 | 23 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall | ||||||||
LV
18-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 37 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +17 | |
| 31 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| 32 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | |
| 29 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 21 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| Team | 94 | 40 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | ||
| DNP: K. Stokes | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
49
22
Ast
24
Season series
LV wins series 4-0
May 20LV87@CON62
LV87@CON62Jun 26CON59@LV85
CON59@LV85Jul 6LV86@CON68
LV86@CON68Aug 11CON86@LV94today
CON86@LV94todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:41
CONS. Rivers
GGame leader · 28 min
17 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 20 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
LV beat CON 94-86. A. Wilson paced them with 32 PTS, 20 REB, 5 AST. LV outscored the other side 25-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST
GS 44
Bench(6)
27 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
GS 24
LVstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 33 REB · 18 AST
GS 58
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV2nd Quarter · 1:46 · 45-43
+8pp→ 66% WP
Tina Charles · misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON3rd Quarter · 9:41 · 48-45
+9pp→ 39% WP
Aneesah Morrow · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marina Mabrey assists)
LV3rd Quarter · 7:18 · 50-50
+8pp→ 71% WP
Chelsea Gray · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 31 | 14 | 17 | 24 | 86 |
| LV | 27 | 18 | 25 | 24 | 94 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · LV won 2
31
27
Q1
Mabrey 13
Young 12
14
18
Q2
Lacan 6
Wilson 7
17
25
Q3
Nelson-Ododa 4
Wilson 7
24
24
Q4
Rivers 10
Wilson 12
CON
LV
Shooting comparison
CON
LV
51%
36-70
FG
49%
35-71
39%
12-31
3PT
32%
8-25
100%
2-2
FT
76%
16-21
Play-by-play · 361 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 86·LV 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 86·LV 94
- Q4·13.8
Sun Full timeout
CON 86·LV 94
- Q4·13.8
shot clock turnover
CON 86·LV 94
- Q4·36.2
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
CON 86·LV 94
- Q4·39.8
Saniya Rivers misses 23-foot three point jumper
CON 86·LV 94
+1pp
- Q4·58.2
Dana Evans enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
CON 86·LV 94
- Q4·58.2
shot clock turnover
CON 86·LV 94
−1pp
- Q4·1:23
Marina Mabrey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tina Charles assists)
·
CON 86·LV 94
- Q4·1:36
A'ja Wilson makes 12-foot jumper (Jackie Young assists)
·
CON 83·LV 94
- Q4·1:37
Aces Full timeout
CON 83·LV 92
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:57
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
CON 83·LV 92
- Q4·2:02
Saniya Rivers misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 83·LV 92
+0.9pp
- Q4·2:17
Bria Hartley enters the game for Aaliyah Edwards
·
CON 83·LV 92
- Q4·2:17
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Dana Evans
·
CON 83·LV 92
- Q4·2:17
Sun Full timeout
CON 83·LV 92
- Q4·2:18
A'ja Wilson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Chelsea Gray assists)
·
CON 83·LV 92
+2pp
- Q4·2:38
Saniya Rivers makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaliyah Edwards assists)
·
CON 83·LV 90
−2pp
- Q4·2:48
Aaliyah Edwards defensive rebound
CON 80·LV 90
- Q4·2:53
Jewell Loyd misses 22-foot three point shot
CON 80·LV 90
- Q4·2:58
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
CON 80·LV 90
- Q4·3:02
Leila Lacan misses 24-foot three point jumper
CON 80·LV 90
+0.7pp
- Q4·3:09
Dana Evans makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Jackie Young assists)
·
CON 80·LV 90
+2pp
- Q4·3:31
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
CON 80·LV 88
+0.6pp
- Q4·3:34
Aaliyah Edwards misses 12-foot jumper
CON 80·LV 88
+2pp
- Q4·3:45
A'ja Wilson bad pass (Leila Lacan steals)
·
CON 80·LV 88
−2pp
- Q4·3:50
Saniya Rivers makes 10-foot two point shot
CON 80·LV 88
−0.7pp
- Q4·4:07
Jackie Young makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Dana Evans assists)
·
CON 78·LV 88
+2pp
- Q4·4:30
Tina Charles makes layup (Leila Lacan assists)
·
CON 78·LV 86
−1pp
- Q4·4:44
Tina Charles defensive rebound
CON 76·LV 86
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
LV
Home
36-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-71
51
FG %
49
12-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-25
2-2
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-21
22
Assists
24
12
Turnovers
15
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
LV
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶49.7%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.9%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶91.0
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6