Aug 21, 25sim 96
1991
9(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4PHX
CHI
9-29
7983
PHX
24-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Chicago Sky, 83–79. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Angel Reese
F · #5
16.3Game score
15
Pts
20
Reb
4
Ast
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
22.9Game score
28
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI9-29
7983
PHX24-14
CHI9-29PHX24-14
CHI
9-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | |
| 32 | 15 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 32 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | |
| 25 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +6 | |
| 32 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 29 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -7 | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| Team | 79 | 38 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 20 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, C. Vandersloot, H. Van Lith | ||||||||
PHX
24-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 28 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +14 | |
| 27 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | |
| 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 29 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -10 | |
| 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +10 | |
| Team | 83 | 34 | 21 | 17 | 11 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
41
19
Ast
21
Season series
PHX wins series 4-0
May 28CHI89@PHX94
CHI89@PHX94Jun 21PHX107@CHI86
PHX107@CHI86Aug 3PHX83@CHI67
PHX83@CHI67Aug 29CHI79@PHX83today
CHI79@PHX83todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 36pp · 4th Quarter · 10.9
CHIA. Reese
FGame leader · 32 min
15 PTS · 20 REB · 4 AST
PHXK. Copper
GGame leader · 32 min
28 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
PHX beat CHI 83-79. K. Copper paced them with 28 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST. PHX outscored the other side 20-8 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 35 REB · 13 AST
GS 40
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST
GS 15
PHXstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST
GS 72
Bench(3)
15 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 54.7 · 77-79
+15pp→ 81% WP
Natasha Mack · offensive rebound
PHX4th Quarter · 34.2 · 77-79
+18pp→ 80% WP
Natasha Mack · blocks Angel Reese 's 8-foot layup
CHI4th Quarter · 10.9 · 79-81
+36pp→ 39% WP
Satou Sabally · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 22 | 8 | 25 | 24 | 79 |
| PHX | 17 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 83 |
Period scoring
CHI won 3 · PHX won 1
22
17
Q1
Nurse 6
Copper 4
8
20
Q2
Reese 4
Copper 17
25
24
Q3
Cardoso 6
Copper 9
24
22
Q4
Reese 8
Thomas 7
CHI
PHX
Shooting comparison
CHI
PHX
45%
29-65
FG
41%
29-71
50%
10-20
3PT
27%
6-22
79%
11-14
FT
86%
19-22
Play-by-play · 393 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 79·PHX 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 79·PHX 83
+0.7pp
- Q4·2.3
Angel Reese bad pass (Alyssa Thomas steals)
·
CHI 79·PHX 83
+3pp
- Q4·6.0
Rachel Banham enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
CHI 79·PHX 83
- Q4·6.0
Sky timeout
CHI 79·PHX 83
- Q4·6.0
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 79·PHX 83
−2pp
- Q4·6.0
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 79·PHX 82
+0.6pp
- Q4·6.0
Angel Reese personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 79·PHX 81
+6pp
- Q4·6.3
Alyssa Thomas defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 79·PHX 81
+5pp
- Q4·10.9
Angel Reese misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
CHI 79·PHX 81
+26pp
- Q4·10.9
Michaela Onyenwere enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CHI 79·PHX 81
- Q4·10.9
Satou Sabally shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 79·PHX 81
−36pp
- Q4·10.9
Angel Reese makes 2-foot layup (Kamilla Cardoso assists)
·
CHI 79·PHX 81
- Q4·13.0
Rachel Banham enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
CHI 77·PHX 81
- Q4·13.0
Sky Full timeout
CHI 77·PHX 81
- Q4·13.8
Alyssa Thomas makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·PHX 81
+7pp
- Q4·23.6
Michaela Onyenwere enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CHI 77·PHX 79
- Q4·23.6
Mercury Full timeout
CHI 77·PHX 79
- Q4·23.6
Natasha Mack offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·PHX 79
+12pp
- Q4·24.8
Kamilla Cardoso blocks Kahleah Copper 's 4-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
CHI 77·PHX 79
−9pp
- Q4·30.6
Alyssa Thomas defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·PHX 79
+5pp
- Q4·34.2
Natasha Mack blocks Angel Reese 's 8-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
CHI 77·PHX 79
+18pp
- Q4·50.2
Angel Reese defensive rebound
CHI 77·PHX 79
−4pp
- Q4·53.2
DeWanna Bonner misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·PHX 79
−14pp
- Q4·54.7
Natasha Mack offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·PHX 79
+15pp
- Q4·56.9
Satou Sabally misses 3-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·PHX 79
−14pp
- Q4·1:15
Kamilla Cardoso makes 8-foot two point shot (Kia Nurse assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 77·PHX 79
−8pp
- Q4·1:25
Sky Full timeout
CHI 75·PHX 79
- Q4·1:25
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 75·PHX 79
−3pp
- Q4·1:25
Mercury offensive team rebound
CHI 75·PHX 78
−2pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
29-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-71
45
FG %
41
10-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-22
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-22
19
Assists
21
20
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort- Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
PHX
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶42.3%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶31.4%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶83.7
19.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
12.4