Aug 29, 25sim 92
1979
11(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+22ATL
DAL
9-31
78100
ATL
25-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Dallas Wings, 100–78. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Maddy Siegrist
F · #20
16.3Game score
23
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
24.5Game score
24
Pts
4
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL9-31
78100
ATL25-14
DAL9-31ATL25-14
DAL
9-31
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 35 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -8 | |
| 21 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 33 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -20 | |
| 30 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 25 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -31 | |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 78 | 26 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 11 | ||
ATL
25-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +6 | |
| 30 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| 36 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 37 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +17 | |
| 27 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +19 | |
| 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 17 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 19 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 100 | 31 | 32 | 6 | 10 | 9 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
55
20
Ast
32
Season series
ATL wins series 3-1
May 24DAL75@ATL83
DAL75@ATL83Jun 25ATL55@DAL68
ATL55@DAL68Jul 31ATL88@DAL85
ATL88@DAL85Aug 29DAL78@ATL100today
DAL78@ATL100todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 4.4
DALM. Siegrist
FGame leader · 35 min
23 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
ATLR. Howard
GGame leader · 37 min
24 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
ATL beat DAL 100-78. R. Howard led with 24 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. ATL outscored the other side 29-11 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 19 REB · 18 AST
GS 45
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 9
ATLstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 24 REB · 23 AST
GS 76
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL1st Quarter · 39.7 · 19-19
+7pp→ 71% WP
Maddy Siegrist · blocks Nia Coffey 's 3-foot driving layup
DAL3rd Quarter · 4:28 · 57-60
+7pp→ 25% WP
Amy Okonkwo · makes 24-foot three pointer (Paige Bueckers assists)
DAL3rd Quarter · 4.4 · 67-71
+8pp→ 23% WP
Maddy Siegrist · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grace Berger assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 21 | 19 | 27 | 11 | 78 |
| ATL | 19 | 30 | 22 | 29 | 100 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · ATL won 2
21
19
Q1
Siegrist 11
Griner 7
19
30
Q2
Siegrist 5
Howard 14
27
22
Q3
Siegrist 7
Jones 6
11
29
Q4
Bueckers 4
Howard 8
DAL
ATL
Shooting comparison
DAL
ATL
45%
33-73
FG
55%
38-69
28%
5-18
3PT
45%
15-33
78%
7-9
FT
75%
9-12
Play-by-play · 358 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 78·ATL 100
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 78·ATL 100
- Q4·1.4
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound
DAL 78·ATL 100
- Q4·2.4
Diamond Miller misses 14-foot step back jumpshot
DAL 78·ATL 100
- Q4·20.1
Nia Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
·
DAL 78·ATL 100
- Q4·39.9
Te-Hina Paopao defensive rebound
DAL 78·ATL 97
- Q4·42.9
Diamond Miller misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 78·ATL 97
- Q4·50.3
Maya Caldwell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nia Coffey assists)
·
DAL 78·ATL 97
- Q4·1:07
Diamond Miller makes two point shot
DAL 78·ATL 94
- Q4·1:15
Amy Okonkwo defensive rebound
DAL 76·ATL 94
- Q4·1:22
Te-Hina Paopao misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 76·ATL 94
- Q4·1:30
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
DAL 76·ATL 94
- Q4·1:30
Dream defensive team rebound
DAL 76·ATL 94
- Q4·1:31
Christyn Williams misses driving layup
DAL 76·ATL 94
- Q4·1:44
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 76·ATL 94
- Q4·1:44
Sika Kone enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
DAL 76·ATL 93
- Q4·1:44
Nia Coffey enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
DAL 76·ATL 93
- Q4·1:44
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
DAL 76·ATL 93
- Q4·1:44
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 76·ATL 93
- Q4·1:44
Christyn Williams shooting foul
DAL 76·ATL 92
- Q4·1:58
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
DAL 76·ATL 92
- Q4·2:02
Christyn Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper
DAL 76·ATL 92
- Q4·2:20
Rhyne Howard makes driving layup (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
·
DAL 76·ATL 92
- Q4·2:33
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
DAL 76·ATL 90
- Q4·2:33
Christyn Williams enters the game for Maddy Siegrist
·
DAL 76·ATL 90
- Q4·2:33
Diamond Miller enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
DAL 76·ATL 90
- Q4·2:33
Serena Sundell enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
DAL 76·ATL 90
- Q4·2:33
(02:33) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Dream] retain their timeout
DAL 76·ATL 90
- Q4·2:33
Dream Coach's Challenge
DAL 76·ATL 90
- Q4·2:33
Dream defensive team rebound
DAL 76·ATL 90
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
33-73
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-69
45
FG %
55
5-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-33
7-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-12
20
Assists
32
11
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 11 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
ATL
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
43.6%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
83.9
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.9
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.9