Sep 7, 25sim 95
377
6(H)91
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11CON
CON
7-27
8069
WSH
16-19
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 80–69.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Olivia Nelson-Ododa
C · #10
14.7Game score
15
Pts
9
Reb
4
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
11.3Game score
19
Pts
3
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON7-27
8069
WSH16-19
CON7-27WSH16-19
CON
7-27
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 24 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 35 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | |
| 35 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | |
| 29 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +15 | |
| 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 26 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| Team | 80 | 38 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 10 | ||
| DNP: H. Peters, R. Marshall, M. Toure | ||||||||
WSH
16-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 21 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 29 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| 34 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 30 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | |
| 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| 16 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 69 | 33 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: S. Dolson, J. Sheldon, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
44
16
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 18WSH90@CON85
WSH90@CON85Jun 8CON67@WSH104
CON67@WSH104Aug 19CON80@WSH69today
CON80@WSH69todayAug 21WSH56@CON67
WSH56@CON67Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:34
CONO. Nelson-Ododa
CGame leader · 29 min
15 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 34 min
19 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
CON beat WSH 80-69. O. Nelson-Ododa led with 15 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. CON outscored the other side 26-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 44% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST
GS 25
Bench(4)
45 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST
GS 39
WSHstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 27 REB · 18 AST
GS 40
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON2nd Quarter · 5:34 · 34-27
+8pp→ 59% WP
Lindsay Allen · makes 24-foot three pointer
CON2nd Quarter · 2:59 · 41-35
+7pp→ 64% WP
Bria Hartley · makes free throw 1 of 2
CON3rd Quarter · 1:24 · 59-49
+7pp→ 88% WP
Sun de · lay of game violation
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 21 | 26 | 15 | 18 | 80 |
| WSH | 23 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 69 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · WSH won 2
21
23
Q1
Rivers 7
Melbourne 8
26
12
Q2
Rivers 4
Iriafen 5
15
16
Q3
Mabrey 4
Sutton 5
18
18
Q4
Nelson-Ododa 8
Citron 11
CON
WSH
Shooting comparison
CON
WSH
46%
31-68
FG
44%
27-62
19%
3-16
3PT
29%
5-17
79%
15-19
FT
71%
10-14
Play-by-play · 360 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 80·WSH 69
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 80·WSH 69
- Q4·23.2
Sonia Citron makes 27-foot three pointer (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
CON 80·WSH 69
- Q4·26.0
Jade Melbourne offensive rebound
CON 80·WSH 66
- Q4·28.7
Sonia Citron misses two point shot
CON 80·WSH 66
- Q4·33.8
Saniya Rivers bad pass (Emily Engstler steals)
·
CON 80·WSH 66
- Q4·51.4
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
CON 80·WSH 66
- Q4·53.2
Kiki Iriafen misses 16-foot jumper
CON 80·WSH 66
- Q4·1:14
Tina Charles makes 12-foot two point shot (Olivia Nelson-Ododa assists)
·
CON 80·WSH 66
- Q4·1:38
Jade Melbourne makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
CON 78·WSH 66
- Q4·1:45
Emily Engstler offensive rebound
CON 78·WSH 63
- Q4·1:49
Sonia Citron misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 78·WSH 63
- Q4·1:53
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
CON 78·WSH 63
- Q4·1:55
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses 18-foot jumper
CON 78·WSH 63
- Q4·2:09
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 78·WSH 63
- Q4·2:09
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 78·WSH 62
- Q4·2:09
Olivia Nelson-Ododa personal foul
CON 78·WSH 61
- Q4·2:18
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes 14-foot jumper (Leila Lacan assists)
·
CON 78·WSH 61
- Q4·2:32
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
CON 76·WSH 61
- Q4·2:35
Kiki Iriafen misses 3-foot two point shot
CON 76·WSH 61
- Q4·2:44
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
CON 76·WSH 61
- Q4·2:47
Emily Engstler blocks Olivia Nelson-Ododa 's 5-foot layup
·
CON 76·WSH 61
- Q4·3:06
Sun Full timeout
CON 76·WSH 61
- Q4·3:07
Kiki Iriafen makes layup (Emily Engstler assists)
·
CON 76·WSH 61
- Q4·3:18
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Sug Sutton
·
CON 76·WSH 59
- Q4·3:18
Mystics defensive team rebound
CON 76·WSH 59
- Q4·3:19
Marina Mabrey misses 16-foot jumper
CON 76·WSH 59
- Q4·3:38
Sonia Citron makes two point shot (Sug Sutton assists)
·
CON 76·WSH 59
- Q4·3:41
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
CON 76·WSH 57
- Q4·3:45
Leila Lacan misses running pullup jump shot
CON 76·WSH 57
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
31-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-62
46
FG %
44
3-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-17
15-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-14
16
Assists
21
10
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
28.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.5± 7.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
Assists
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH2.9± 2.6low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Brittney GrinerCON0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
WSH
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶28.0%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶83.4
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶18.7
14.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6