Aug 8, 25sim 89
1891
6(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1LA
DAL
9-27
8081
LA
17-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks held off Dallas Wings, 81–80. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
36.2Game score
44
Pts
4
Reb
3
Ast
LA · top performer
Rickea Jackson
F · #2
18.0Game score
25
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL9-27
8081
LA17-18
DAL9-27LA17-18
DAL
9-27
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +10 | |
| 36 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 30 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +8 | |
| 36 | 44 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +12 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 15 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | |
| 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -18 | |
| 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| Team | 80 | 32 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 15 | ||
| DNP: L. Yueru, A. Ogunbowale, T. Harris | ||||||||
LA
17-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -15 | |
| 25 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 33 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -10 | |
| 33 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 37 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 19 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| 19 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +13 | |
| Team | 81 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 14 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili, S. Barker | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
45
16
Ast
21
Season series
LA wins series 4-0
Jun 7LA93@DAL79
LA93@DAL79Aug 15LA97@DAL96
LA97@DAL96Aug 21DAL80@LA81today
DAL80@LA81todaySep 7DAL77@LA91
DAL77@LA91Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 55pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 36 min44-pt night
44 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
LAR. Jackson
FGame leader · 33 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
LA beat DAL 81-80. R. Jackson paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 0 AST. DAL outscored the other side 29-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 61
Bench(4)
9 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
GS 3
LAstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST
GS 45
Bench(3)
18 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 2:34 · 79-78
+21pp→ 56% WP
Aziaha James · shooting foul
LA4th Quarter · 2:12 · 79-79
+19pp→ 53% WP
Luisa Geiselsoder · misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA4th Quarter · 0.0 · 80-81
+55pp→ 100% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 21 | 29 | 14 | 80 |
| LA | 18 | 26 | 15 | 22 | 81 |
Period scoring
DAL won 1 · LA won 3
16
18
Q1
Bueckers 8
Jackson 11
21
26
Q2
Bueckers 8
Plum 7
29
15
Q3
Bueckers 15
Brink 10
14
22
Q4
Bueckers 13
Plum 10
DAL
LA
Shooting comparison
DAL
LA
48%
29-60
FG
45%
33-74
58%
11-19
3PT
38%
10-26
79%
11-14
FT
63%
5-8
Play-by-play · 353 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 80·LA 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 80·LA 81
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Wings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
DAL 80·LA 81
- Q4·0.0
Kelsey Plum makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·LA 81
+55pp
- Q4·17.1
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
DAL 80·LA 79
+3pp
- Q4·20.5
Aziaha James misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·LA 79
+10pp
- Q4·32.0
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 80·LA 79
−4pp
- Q4·35.8
Kelsey Plum misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·LA 79
−11pp
- Q4·53.5
Sparks Full timeout
DAL 80·LA 79
- Q4·53.5
Myisha Hines-Allen out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·LA 79
+11pp
- Q4·59.5
Rickea Jackson lost ball turnover (Luisa Geiselsoder steals)
·
DAL 80·LA 79
- Q4·59.5
Luisa Geiselsoder vs. Rickea Jackson (Myisha Hines-Allen gains possession)
· ·
DAL 80·LA 79
- Q4·1:03
Paige Bueckers makes technical free throw
DAL 80·LA 79
−2pp
- Q4·1:03
Rickea Jackson technical foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
−17pp
- Q4·1:03
Rickea Jackson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
+7pp
- Q4·1:03
Rickea Jackson misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
−7pp
- Q4·1:03
Rickea Jackson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
+7pp
- Q4·1:06
Kelsey Plum misses 20-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
−7pp
- Q4·1:28
Rae Burrell defensive rebound
DAL 79·LA 79
+2pp
- Q4·1:30
Grace Berger misses 13-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
+7pp
- Q4·1:54
Luisa Geiselsoder defensive rebound
DAL 79·LA 79
−2pp
- Q4·1:57
Grace Berger blocks Dearica Hamby 's 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 79·LA 79
−6pp
- Q4·2:07
Rae Burrell defensive rebound
DAL 79·LA 79
+2pp
- Q4·2:12
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
+19pp
- Q4·2:20
Julie Allemand personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
−16pp
- Q4·2:34
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 79
+9pp
- Q4·2:34
(02:34) [Wings] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Wings] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 78
−16pp
- Q4·2:34
Aziaha James shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 78
+21pp
- Q4·2:34
Dearica Hamby makes layup (Rae Burrell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 79·LA 78
+7pp
- Q4·2:37
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 79·LA 76
+6pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
LA
Home
29-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-74
48
FG %
45
11-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-26
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
5-8
16
Assists
21
15
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
LA
46.6%
FG%
44.7
▶50.7%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.3%
88.9
PPG
85.4
▶91.6
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.1
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.4