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FINAL+17GS
CON

CON

5-26

5774
GS

GS

16-15

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAMon, Aug 11FinalSeriesGS wins series 2-1

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Connecticut Sun, 74–57.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CON · top performer

CON
Olivia Nelson-Ododa

Olivia Nelson-Ododa

C · #10

14.5Game score

12

Pts

4

Reb

2

Ast

GS · top performer

GS
Janelle Salaun

Janelle Salaun

F · #13

11.3Game score

16

Pts

1

Reb

2

Ast

WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Golden State Valkyries · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
57
74
CON5-26GS16-15
CON

CON

5-26

57
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
A. MorrowA. Morrow★F · #24
2413140101-18
O. Nelson-OdodaO. Nelson-Ododa★C · #10
301242121-21
B. HartleyB. Hartley★G · #14
20314102-18
M. MabreyM. Mabrey★G · #3
25334003-17
L. LacanL. Lacan★G · #47
33603001-15
A. EdwardsA. EdwardsF · #8
18850023+1
S. RiversS. RiversG · #22
29951211-7
M. ToureM. ToureG · #28
13302001+6
Team5735166513
DNP: R. Marshall, L. Allen
GS

GS

16-15

74
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
C. ZandalasiniC. Zandalasini★F · #24
321742002+21
J. SalaunJ. Salaun★F · #13
271612001+13
T. FagbenleT. Fagbenle★C · #14
21691111+15
T. HayesT. Hayes★G · #15
321754002+26
V. BurtonV. Burton★G · #22
303610011+16
I. RupertI. RupertC · #12
181011100+2
K. MartinK. MartinG · #20
163411000
C. LeiteC. LeiteG · #0
15001100+3
Team743222427

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

34

FG %

41

16

Ast

22

Season series

GS wins series 2-1

Jun 23CONCON63@GSGS87
Jul 27GSGS64@CONCON95
Aug 12CONCON57@GSGS74today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCON ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:06

CONCON
O. Nelson-Ododa

O. Nelson-Ododa

C

Game leader · 30 min

12 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

GSGS
J. Salaun

J. Salaun

F

Game leader · 27 min

16 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

GS beat CON 74-57. J. Salaun led with 16 PTS, 1 REB, 2 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs CON

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
CONCONstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

37 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 21

Bench(4)

20 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 15

GSGSstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST

GS 49

Bench(6)

15 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
GS3rd Quarter · 8:06 · 28-37
+10pp→ 86% WP

Janelle Salaun · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
CON1016181357
GS1418231974

Period scoring

CON won 0 · GS won 4

10
14

Q1

Morrow 4

Fagbenle 4

16
18

Q2

Rivers 7

Hayes 8

18
23

Q3

Nelson-Ododa 9

Zandalasini 8

13
19

Q4

Lacan 5

Rupert 8

CON
GS

Shooting comparison

CON
GS

34%

21-61

FG

41%

26-63

20%

5-25

3PT

39%

13-33

71%

10-14

FT

69%

9-13

Play-by-play · 352 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    CON 57·GS 74

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    CON 57·GS 74

  3. Q4·13.2

    Kaila Charles makes free throw 2 of 2

    CON 56·GS 74

  4. Q4·13.2

    Kaila Charles makes free throw 1 of 2

    CON 56·GS 73

  5. Q4·13.2

    Leila Lacan shooting foul

    CON 56·GS 72

  6. Q4·26.2

    Veronica Burton enters the game for Kate Martin

    ·

    CON 57·GS 72

  7. Q4·26.2

    Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2

    CON 57·GS 72

  8. Q4·26.2

    Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2

    CON 56·GS 72

  9. Q4·26.2

    Kaila Charles loose ball foul

    CON 55·GS 72

  10. Q4·26.2

    Sun defensive team rebound

    CON 55·GS 72

  11. Q4·28.5

    Kaitlyn Chen misses 10-foot jumper

    CON 55·GS 72

  12. Q4·47.8

    Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound

    CON 55·GS 72

  13. Q4·51.6

    Mamignan Toure misses 23-foot three point shot

    CON 55·GS 72

  14. Q4·56.0

    Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound

    CON 55·GS 72

  15. Q4·1:00

    Kate Martin misses 22-foot three point jumper

    CON 55·GS 72

  16. Q4·1:12

    Carla Leite enters the game for Iliana Rupert

    ·

    CON 55·GS 72

  17. Q4·1:12

    Leila Lacan makes free throw 1 of 1

    CON 55·GS 72

  18. Q4·1:12

    Kaila Charles shooting foul

    CON 54·GS 72

  19. Q4·1:12

    Leila Lacan makes driving layup

    CON 54·GS 72

  20. Q4·1:21

    Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound

    CON 52·GS 72

  21. Q4·1:24

    Kaitlyn Chen misses 1-foot two point shot

    CON 52·GS 72

  22. Q4·1:28

    Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound

    CON 52·GS 72

  23. Q4·1:30

    Leila Lacan misses 23-foot three point jumper

    CON 52·GS 72

  24. Q4·1:58

    Aaliyah Edwards enters the game for Marina Mabrey

    ·

    CON 52·GS 72

  25. Q4·1:58

    Mamignan Toure enters the game for Olivia Nelson-Ododa

    ·

    CON 52·GS 72

  26. Q4·1:58

    Kaila Charles enters the game for Cecilia Zandalasini

    ·

    CON 52·GS 72

  27. Q4·1:58

    Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Tiffany Hayes

    ·

    CON 52·GS 72

  28. Q4·1:58

    Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Carla Leite

    ·

    CON 52·GS 72

  29. Q4·1:58

    (01:58) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)

    CON 52·GS 72

  30. Q4·1:58

    Official timeout

    CON 52·GS 72

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

GS

Home

21-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-63

34

FG %

41

5-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-33

10-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-13

16

Assists

22

13

Turnovers

7

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · CON favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(GS win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(GS win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(GS win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

105

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Veronica BurtonGS
    15.6± 5.8low
  • Gabby WilliamsGS
    14.3± 7.5low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    13.6± 5.3low

Rebounds

  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    9.4± 5.2low
  • Kaila CharlesGS
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    5.2± 1.1low

Assists

  • Veronica BurtonGS
    5.5± 4.2low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Gabby WilliamsGS
    2.9± 2.4low

Blocks

  • Kiah StokesGS
    1.8± 2.7low
  • Laeticia AmihereGS
    1.1± 1.5low
  • Kennedy BurkeCON
    0.9± 0.8low

Steals

  • Gabby WilliamsGS
    1.9± 2.4low
  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.6± 1.5low
  • Aaliyah EdwardsCON
    1.0± 1.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CON

CON

league avg

GS

GS

40.7%

FG%

44.7

▶

41.3%

26.0%

3PT %

32.6

▶

36.1%

74.7

PPG

85.4

▶

86.4

17.9

Assists / G

18.0

▶

19.1

14.8

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

10.1

Data via ESPN · wehoop