Aug 12, 25sim 96
1857
129689(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11LA
CON
5-24
91102
LA
14-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks held off Connecticut Sun, 102–91.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
13.2Game score
19
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
LA · top performer
Julie Allemand
G · #20
17.4Game score
10
Pts
10
Reb
11
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON5-24
91102
LA14-15
CON5-24LA14-15
CON
5-24
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -8 | |
| 36 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -15 | |
| 26 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 36 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -20 | |
| 26 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 21 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| 22 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 9 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| Team | 91 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | ||
| DNP: A. Edwards, R. Marshall, L. Allen | ||||||||
LA
14-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 32 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +16 | |
| 29 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 35 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| 34 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +21 | |
| 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| Team | 102 | 32 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili, S. Barker | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
56
20
Ast
24
Season series
LA wins series 3-0
Jul 13CON88@LA92
CON88@LA92Jul 24LA101@CON86
LA101@CON86Aug 8CON91@LA102today
CON91@LA102todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 26pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:08
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 36 min
19 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
LAJ. Allemand
GGame leader · 34 minTriple-double
10 PTS · 10 REB · 11 AST
How it ended
LA beat CON 102-91. J. Allemand stuffed the line with 10 PTS, 10 REB, and 11 AST. Kelsey Plum's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 24 REB · 15 AST
GS 47
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
GS 21
LAstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 24 REB · 23 AST
GS 66
Bench(3)
23 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON2nd Quarter · 3:26 · 48-39
+24pp→ 65% WP
Rickea Jackson · kicked ball violation
LA3rd Quarter · 5:03 · 59-60
+16pp→ 66% WP
Olivia Nelson-Ododa · enters the game for Aneesah Morrow
CON4th Quarter · 7:18 · 76-79
+12pp→ 36% WP
Cameron Brink · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 91 |
| LA | 27 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 102 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · LA won 2
29
27
Q1
Hartley 8
Jackson 12
22
22
Q2
Toure 6
Jackson 17
18
25
Q3
Mabrey 6
Stevens 7
22
28
Q4
Mabrey 9
Plum 14
CON
LA
Shooting comparison
CON
LA
41%
33-80
FG
56%
35-62
45%
13-29
3PT
44%
11-25
80%
12-15
FT
81%
21-26
Play-by-play · 384 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 91·LA 102
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 91·LA 102
- Q4·8.8
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 91·LA 102
- Q4·8.8
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 91·LA 101
- Q4·8.8
Marina Mabrey shooting foul
CON 91·LA 100
- Q4·31.5
Leila Lacan makes two point shot
CON 91·LA 100
- Q4·34.6
Azura Stevens lost ball turnover (Leila Lacan steals)
·
CON 89·LA 100
- Q4·47.2
Tina Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 89·LA 100
- Q4·47.2
Rae Burrell enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
CON 88·LA 100
- Q4·47.2
Tina Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 88·LA 100
- Q4·47.2
Azura Stevens shooting foul
CON 87·LA 100
- Q4·51.9
Marina Mabrey offensive rebound
CON 87·LA 100
- Q4·55.3
Bria Hartley misses 22-foot three point jumper
CON 87·LA 100
- Q4·1:11
Julie Allemand makes 2-foot two point shot (Dearica Hamby assists)
·
CON 87·LA 100
- Q4·1:24
Tina Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 87·LA 98
- Q4·1:24
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 86·LA 98
- Q4·1:24
Tina Charles misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 86·LA 98
- Q4·1:24
Dearica Hamby shooting foul
CON 86·LA 98
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:32
Sun Full timeout
CON 86·LA 98
- Q4·1:38
Kelsey Plum makes driving layup
CON 86·LA 98
- Q4·1:45
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
CON 86·LA 96
- Q4·1:49
Marina Mabrey misses 23-foot three point jumper
CON 86·LA 96
- Q4·2:05
Julie Allemand makes driving layup
CON 86·LA 96
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:10
Leila Lacan makes two point shot
CON 86·LA 94
- Q4·2:10
Leila Lacan offensive rebound
CON 84·LA 94
- Q4·2:15
Leila Lacan misses driving floating jump shot
CON 84·LA 94
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:44
Kelsey Plum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)
·
CON 84·LA 94
+2pp
- Q4·2:48
Aneesah Morrow enters the game for Olivia Nelson-Ododa
·
CON 84·LA 91
- Q4·2:48
Dearica Hamby enters the game for Cameron Brink
·
CON 84·LA 91
- Q4·2:48
Rickea Jackson enters the game for Rae Burrell
·
CON 84·LA 91
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
LA
Home
33-80
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-62
41
FG %
56
13-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-25
12-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-26
20
Assists
24
9
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Brittney GrinerCON0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
LA
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶50.7%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.3%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶91.6
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.4