Jun 25, 25sim 89
686
19(H)97
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3DAL
DAL
3-11
8683
CON
2-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 86–83. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Aziaha James
G · #10
15.9Game score
17
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
20.2Game score
26
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL3-11
8683
CON2-11
DAL3-11CON2-11
DAL
3-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 17 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 34 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 37 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +7 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 25 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 24 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 14 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | |
| Team | 86 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 17 | ||
| DNP: M. Siegrist, T. Harris | ||||||||
CON
2-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 29 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 29 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | |
| 24 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 28 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| 19 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 20 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | |
| Team | 83 | 29 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 12 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, K. Diaby | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
42
23
Ast
19
Season series
DAL wins series 2-1
May 27DAL109@CON87
DAL109@CON87Jun 20DAL86@CON83today
DAL86@CON83todayAug 28CON101@DAL95
CON101@DAL95Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 7:13
DALA. James
GGame leader · 25 min
17 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 29 min
26 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
DAL beat CON 86-83. A. James led with 17 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 22 REB · 16 AST
GS 42
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 20 REB · 7 AST
GS 24
CONstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 40
Bench(5)
29 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON2nd Quarter · 3:04 · 34-35
+14pp→ 44% WP
Tina Charles · makes 2-foot layup (Marina Mabrey assists)
CON4th Quarter · 9:35 · 65-64
+16pp→ 37% WP
DiJonai Carrington · blocks Aneesah Morrow's two point shot
DAL4th Quarter · 7:13 · 71-66
+17pp→ 81% WP
Aziaha James · makes driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 21 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 86 |
| CON | 15 | 25 | 24 | 19 | 83 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · CON won 2
21
15
Q1
Smith 8
Charles 6
21
25
Q2
Bueckers 11
Charles 15
23
24
Q3
James 10
Charles 6
21
19
Q4
James 9
Morrow 8
DAL
CON
Shooting comparison
DAL
CON
43%
29-67
FG
42%
27-64
25%
4-16
3PT
33%
6-18
80%
24-30
FT
82%
23-28
Play-by-play · 431 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 86·CON 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 86·CON 83
−5pp
- Q4·9.1
Saniya Rivers makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marina Mabrey assists)
·
DAL 86·CON 83
+3pp
- Q4·16.1
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 86·CON 80
- Q4·16.1
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 85·CON 80
+0.8pp
- Q4·16.1
Paige Bueckers misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 85·CON 80
+0.5pp
- Q4·16.1
Saniya Rivers personal take foul
DAL 85·CON 80
−2pp
- Q4·17.1
Wings timeout
DAL 85·CON 80
- Q4·17.1
Jacy Sheldon makes driving layup
DAL 85·CON 80
- Q4·26.2
Kaila Charles enters the game for Aziaha James
· ·
DAL 85·CON 78
- Q4·26.2
Sun timeout
DAL 85·CON 78
- Q4·26.2
Aziaha James makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 85·CON 78
+0.9pp
- Q4·26.2
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 84·CON 78
- Q4·26.2
Marina Mabrey shooting foul
DAL 83·CON 78
−3pp
- Q4·34.2
Aziaha James enters the game for Kaila Charles
· ·
DAL 83·CON 78
- Q4·34.2
Wings Full timeout
DAL 83·CON 78
- Q4·34.2
Aneesah Morrow makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 83·CON 78
−3pp
- Q4·34.2
Aneesah Morrow makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 83·CON 77
+0.8pp
- Q4·34.2
DiJonai Carrington shooting foul
DAL 83·CON 76
+4pp
- Q4·35.1
Saniya Rivers offensive rebound
DAL 83·CON 76
+0.9pp
- Q4·39.1
Marina Mabrey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 83·CON 76
−2pp
- Q4·45.0
Kaila Charles enters the game for Aziaha James
· ·
DAL 83·CON 76
- Q4·45.0
Sun Full timeout
DAL 83·CON 76
- Q4·45.1
DiJonai Carrington makes driving layup (Paige Bueckers assists)
·
DAL 83·CON 76
−4pp
- Q4·1:03
Saniya Rivers turnover
DAL 81·CON 76
- Q4·1:03
Saniya Rivers offensive foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·CON 76
−5pp
- Q4·1:07
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
DAL 81·CON 76
+1pp
- Q4·1:10
DiJonai Carrington misses driving layup
DAL 81·CON 76
+2pp
- Q4·1:31
Li Yueru defensive rebound
DAL 81·CON 76
- Q4·1:34
Tina Charles misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 81·CON 76
−10pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
CON
Home
29-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-64
43
FG %
42
4-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-18
24-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-28
23
Assists
19
17
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL13.6± 12.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
CON
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8