Jun 29, 25sim 93
1992
6(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3WSH
DAL
3-12
8891
WSH
6-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Dallas Wings, 91–88 in overtime. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Arike Ogunbowale
G · #24
17.2Game score
27
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
23.1Game score
27
Pts
11
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final / OT
DAL3-12
8891
WSH6-8
DAL3-12WSH6-8
DAL
3-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -24 | |
| 32 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -6 | |
| 41 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 40 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +6 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 37 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
| 22 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 21 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 88 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 17 | ||
| DNP: M. Siegrist, T. Harris, D. Carrington, H. Jones | ||||||||
WSH
6-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 30 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +22 | |
| 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 32 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
| 41 | 27 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +1 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 18 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| Team | 91 | 33 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 16 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
45
16
Ast
23
Season series
WSH wins series 2-1
Jun 22DAL88@WSH91today
DAL88@WSH91todayJun 29WSH71@DAL79
WSH71@DAL79Aug 10WSH91@DAL78
WSH91@DAL78Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 38pp · OT · 12.2
DALA. Ogunbowale
GGame leader · 41 min
27 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 41 min
27 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
WSH beat DAL 91-88. S. Citron paced them with 27 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST. DAL outscored the other side 31-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 26 REB · 15 AST
GS 47
Bench(3)
23 PTS · 12 REB · 1 AST
GS 9
WSHstarters 99% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 30 REB · 17 AST
GS 77
Bench(5)
1 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 2:29 · 79-79
+20pp→ 54% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · bad pass (Sonia Citron steals)
DAL4th Quarter · 11.1 · 84-84
+30pp→ 44% WP
Paige Bueckers · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Aziaha James assists)
WSHOT · 12.2 · 88-91
+38pp→ 92% WP
Sonia Citron · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shakira Austin assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 14 | 31 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 88 |
| WSH | 27 | 13 | 22 | 22 | 7 | 91 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · WSH won 3
14
27
Q1
Smith 3
Sutton 9
31
13
Q2
Ogunbowale 14
Iriafen 6
24
22
Q3
Bueckers 6
Citron 7
15
22
Q4
Ogunbowale 7
Citron 6
4
7
OT
Bueckers 4
Austin 4
DAL
WSH
Shooting comparison
DAL
WSH
38%
27-72
FG
45%
28-62
32%
8-25
3PT
47%
7-15
81%
26-32
FT
68%
28-41
Play-by-play · 502 plays
period
event
player
- OT·0.0
End of Game
DAL 88·WSH 91
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
DAL 88·WSH 91
+0.8pp
- OT·2.1
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
DAL 88·WSH 91
- OT·2.1
Paige Bueckers misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 88·WSH 91
+2pp
- OT·4.1
Paige Bueckers offensive rebound
DAL 88·WSH 91
- OT·8.1
Arike Ogunbowale misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 88·WSH 91
+4pp
- OT·12.0
Jade Melbourne enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
DAL 88·WSH 91
- OT·12.0
Wings Full timeout
DAL 88·WSH 91
- OT·12.2
Sonia Citron makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shakira Austin assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 88·WSH 91
+38pp
- OT·26.1
Sonia Citron offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 88·WSH 88
+6pp
- OT·29.1
NaLyssa Smith blocks Kiki Iriafen 's 6-foot driving layup
·
DAL 88·WSH 88
−5pp
- OT·32.0
Aziaha James lost ball turnover (Sonia Citron steals)
·
DAL 88·WSH 88
- OT·33.2
Aziaha James vs. Sonia Citron (Kiki Iriafen gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
DAL 88·WSH 88
+6pp
- OT·34.1
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 88·WSH 88
−2pp
- OT·38.1
Brittney Sykes misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 88·WSH 88
−4pp
- OT·43.1
Mystics Full timeout
DAL 88·WSH 88
- OT·43.1
Mystics defensive team rebound
DAL 88·WSH 88
+1pp
- OT·43.1
Paige Bueckers misses two point shot
DAL 88·WSH 88
+4pp
- OT·43.2
Paige Bueckers offensive rebound
DAL 88·WSH 88
−4pp
- OT·48.1
NaLyssa Smith misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 88·WSH 88
+3pp
- OT·1:05
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
DAL 88·WSH 88
−1pp
- OT·1:07
Shakira Austin misses driving layup
DAL 88·WSH 88
−4pp
- OT·1:25
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
DAL 88·WSH 88
+2pp
- OT·1:28
Arike Ogunbowale misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 88·WSH 88
+6pp
- OT·1:43
Shakira Austin makes 11-foot jumper (Sug Sutton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 88·WSH 88
+12pp
- OT·1:54
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
DAL 88·WSH 86
+3pp
- OT·1:59
Aziaha James misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 88·WSH 86
+7pp
- OT·2:10
NaLyssa Smith offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 88·WSH 86
−7pp
- OT·2:11
Paige Bueckers misses 20-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 88·WSH 86
+5pp
- OT·2:33
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 88·WSH 86
−7pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
27-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-62
38
FG %
45
8-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-15
26-32
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
28-41
16
Assists
23
17
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 15 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
WSH
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.7%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
83.4
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6