Jul 10, 25sim 96
376
19(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11CHI
LA
4-11
8697
CHI
4-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hicago Sky held off Los Angeles Sparks, 97–86.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Azura Stevens
F · #23
18.6Game score
21
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
CHI · top performer
Angel Reese
F · #5
23.3Game score
18
Pts
17
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA4-11
8697
CHI4-10
LA4-11CHI4-10
LA
4-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | |
| 30 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | |
| 36 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -13 | |
| 33 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 35 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | |
| Team | 86 | 27 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 17 | ||
| DNP: C. Brink, S. Feagin, O. Sims, R. Burrell | ||||||||
CHI
4-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 30 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +9 | |
| 23 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 26 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 29 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 97 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, C. Vandersloot | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
45
22
Ast
23
Season series
CHI wins series 2-1
May 25CHI78@LA91
CHI78@LA91Jun 25LA86@CHI97today
LA86@CHI97todayJun 29CHI92@LA85
CHI92@LA85Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 7:02
LAA. Stevens
FGame leader · 30 min
21 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
CHIA. Reese
FGame leader · 33 min
18 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
CHI beat LA 97-86. A. Reese led with 18 PTS, 17 REB, 6 AST. CHI outscored the other side 30-17 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 21 REB · 21 AST
GS 58
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 5
CHIstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST
GS 64
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI4th Quarter · 7:49 · 72-70
+12pp→ 54% WP
Sarah Ashlee Barker · shooting foul
CHI4th Quarter · 7:02 · 72-74
+17pp→ 66% WP
Kamilla Cardoso · blocks Dearica Hamby's step back jumpshot
LA4th Quarter · 5:29 · 74-77
+13pp→ 28% WP
Kamilla Cardoso · lost ball turnover (Azura Stevens steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 29 | 19 | 21 | 17 | 86 |
| CHI | 17 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 97 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · CHI won 3
29
17
Q1
Stevens 11
Cardoso 9
19
25
Q2
Stevens 6
Nurse 6
21
25
Q3
Hamby 7
Reese 9
17
30
Q4
Plum 7
Cardoso 12
LA
CHI
Shooting comparison
LA
CHI
49%
32-65
FG
45%
33-74
27%
7-26
3PT
33%
6-18
71%
15-21
FT
76%
25-33
Play-by-play · 442 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 86·CHI 97
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 86·CHI 97
- Q4·15.0
Liatu King traveling
LA 86·CHI 97
- Q4·20.0
Liatu King offensive rebound
LA 86·CHI 97
- Q4·22.0
Kelsey Plum misses two point shot
LA 86·CHI 97
- Q4·32.2
Angel Reese makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 86·CHI 97
- Q4·32.2
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
LA 86·CHI 96
- Q4·32.2
Angel Reese makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 86·CHI 96
- Q4·32.2
Sarah Ashlee Barker personal take foul
LA 86·CHI 95
- Q4·37.1
Kamilla Cardoso enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
·
LA 86·CHI 95
- Q4·37.1
Sky timeout
LA 86·CHI 95
- Q4·37.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 3 of 3
LA 86·CHI 95
- Q4·37.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 3
LA 85·CHI 95
- Q4·37.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 3
LA 84·CHI 95
- Q4·37.1
(00:37.4) [Sparks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
LA 83·CHI 95
- Q4·37.1
Rachel Banham makes technical free throw
LA 83·CHI 95
- Q4·37.1
Kelsey Plum technical foul
LA 83·CHI 94
- Q4·37.1
Rachel Banham shooting foul
LA 83·CHI 94
- Q4·45.0
Rachel Banham makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 83·CHI 94
- Q4·45.0
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
LA 83·CHI 93
- Q4·45.0
Rachel Banham makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 83·CHI 93
- Q4·45.0
Rickea Jackson personal foul
LA 83·CHI 92
- Q4·50.0
Kamilla Cardoso enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
·
LA 83·CHI 92
- Q4·50.0
Liatu King enters the game for Emma Cannon
·
LA 83·CHI 92
- Q4·50.0
Sarah Ashlee Barker enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 83·CHI 92
- Q4·50.0
Sky Full timeout
LA 83·CHI 92
- Q4·50.0
Dearica Hamby out of bounds bad pass turnover
LA 83·CHI 92
+2pp
- Q4·54.0
Rachel Banham enters the game for Ariel Atkins
·
LA 83·CHI 92
- Q4·54.0
Ariel Atkins personal foul
LA 83·CHI 92
−2pp
- Q4·56.2
Michaela Onyenwere enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
LA 83·CHI 92
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
32-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-74
49
FG %
45
7-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-18
15-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-33
22
Assists
23
17
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
CHI
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.1%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
82.8
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.3
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0