TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed F Moritz Wagner to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed G De'Anthony Melton to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Signed F Spencer Jones to a contract (Jul 31)
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts

Free tool

No-Vig
Calculator

Enter a two-way market and see the fair odds and probability once the book's margin is removed — plus how much hold is baked in.

Questions, answered

What does removing the vig tell me?+

Both sides of a market include the book's margin (the vig or hold). Removing it reveals the probability the market is actually implying for each side — the consensus fair price hidden inside the posted odds.

How much vig is normal?+

A standard -110/-110 spread market holds about 4.5%. Anything above that on a two-way market is expensive; the calculator shows the exact hold percentage for any pair of prices you enter.

Are no-vig odds a prediction?+

No — they're what the MARKET implies once its margin is removed, not our model's view and not a forecast. They're the honest baseline to compare any price against.

Side A
Fair prob58.0%
Fair price-138
Raw implied60.0%
Side B
Fair prob42.0%
Fair price+138
Raw implied43.5%

Book's hold (margin): 3.48%. That's the edge built into the two prices; the fair odds above are what the market implies once it's removed.

More like this — daily graded slate + new free tools

How it works

  • A two-way market's two prices imply probabilities that add up to more than 100% — the excess is the book's hold (margin).
  • Removing the vig normalizes the two back to 100%, giving the fair probability and fair price the market implies for each side.
  • This is what the market implies once its margin is stripped — it's not a claim that our model beats that fair price. See the Calibration Grade for how the model's own probabilities grade out.

The honest explainer

What a no-vig line actually is

The two sides of a market imply probabilities that sum past 100% — the excess is the book's margin. Devigging rescales both sides back to 100%, revealing the probability split the prices actually encode once the margin is stripped.

That fair line is the market's opinion, cleaned up. It is useful as a benchmark — for grading a price at another book, valuing a promo, or checking a hedge — not as a crystal ball.

Worked example

−150 / +130: implied 60.0% and 43.5%, summing to 103.5%. Divide each by 1.035 and the fair split is 58.0% / 42.0% — a fair price of about −138 / +138. If another book is offering +145 on the underdog, you now have a measured comparison instead of a hunch.

When NOT to use it

  • Longshot-heavy markets: the simple multiplicative method systematically overstates fair longshot probability (the favorite–longshot bias). Treat devigged extreme prices with extra suspicion.
  • One-sided or stale markets — a fair line derived from a price nobody is betting into is a weak benchmark.
  • Don't promote the devigged number to 'my true probability.' It's the market's view minus margin — if you disagree with the market, this tool can't referee that.