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Compare both sides of a pick swap on the chart the market actually uses — the NFL Jimmy Johnson chart or the NBA pick-value curve. See who it favors. Pure math, no signup.
The NFL side uses the classic Jimmy Johnson chart — the reference table front offices have anchored to for decades. The NBA side uses a Pelton/Morey-style decreasing-value curve. Both describe how the MARKET has valued picks, not what any specific player will become.
Within about 5% of total chart value on both sides. Real trades routinely deviate — teams pay premiums to move up for a specific player — so the chart is the baseline, not a verdict.
No. Chart value measures the market price of the SLOT, not the outcome of the pick. History is full of late picks who outplayed early ones; the chart just tells you what the capital usually costs.
Values are the classic Jimmy Johnson chart — the NFL's longtime reference for pick trades. This is how the market has valued draft capital — not our model, and not a judgment of the players taken. “Even” = within ~5%.
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The honest explainer
Trade charts encode a market convention: what draft capital has historically been exchanged for, smoothed into points. Comparing two sides on a chart measures whether a trade is normal by that convention — not whether it will work out.
Different charts disagree on purpose. The classic trade-desk chart prices the top of the draft steeply; research-derived surplus-value charts flatten it. The disagreement is information about the market, not an error to resolve.
NFL, classic chart: pick 10 is 1,300 points; picks 25 + 40 are 720 + 500 = 1,220. The single pick 'wins' by 80 points — roughly what the same chart assigns an early fourth-rounder. Whether consolidating for one premium player beats two swings is exactly the judgment the chart cannot make for you.