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FINAL+4MTL
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

62
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 997 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, May 21FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -218

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 6–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Juraj Slafkovsky

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
2
MTL48-24-10CAR53-22-7
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Playoff series

MTL leads series 1-0

May 22MTLMTL6@CARCAR2today
May 23MTLMTL2@CARCAR3
May 26CARCAR3@MTLMTL2
May 28CARCAR4@MTLMTL0
May 30MTLMTL1@CARCAR6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+18036%
CARCAR-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat CAR 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL4026
CAR1102

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · CAR won 1

4
1

1

0
1

2

2
0

3

MTL
CAR

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  3. 3rd·19:20

    Eric Robinson hit Mike Matheson

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  4. 3rd·18:47

    Jackson Blake hit Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  5. 3rd·18:37

    Shayne Gostisbehere Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  6. 3rd·18:04

    Logan Stankoven Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  7. 3rd·17:58

    K'Andre Miller shot blocked by Jayden Struble

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  8. 3rd·17:32

    Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  9. 3rd·17:32

    Juraj Slafkovský Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (12)

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 2

  10. 3rd·17:24

    Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  11. 3rd·16:49

    Alexandre Carrier hit Alexander Nikishin

    · ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  12. 3rd·16:30

    Jaccob Slavin Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  13. 3rd·16:20

    Logan Stankoven shot blocked by Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  14. 3rd·16:07

    Jackson Blake Slap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  15. 3rd·15:40

    Taylor Hall hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  16. 3rd·15:36

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  17. 3rd·15:36

    Icing

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  18. 3rd·15:31

    Giveaway by Seth Jarvis

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  19. 3rd·15:12

    Sean Walker Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  20. 3rd·14:43

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  21. 3rd·14:43

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  22. 3rd·14:41

    Jordan Martinook Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  23. 3rd·14:28

    Jordan Staal hit Alexandre Carrier

    · ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  24. 3rd·14:23

    Giveaway by Lane Hutson

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  25. 3rd·14:21

    Nikolaj Ehlers hit Lane Hutson

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  26. 3rd·13:32

    Giveaway by K'Andre Miller

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  27. 3rd·13:17

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  28. 3rd·13:17

    Puck in Benches

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  29. 3rd·13:03

    Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier

    · ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

  30. 3rd·12:54

    Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier

    · ·

    MTL 5·CAR 2

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

22

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

8

28

Faceoffs W

28

29

Blocks

12

12

Giveaways

16

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +180/CAR -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7599
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    BURSTS2398
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    SHOT MPH97.596
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4396

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR