Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at CAR?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

MTL

48-24-10

CAR

53-22-7

NHLThu, May 21FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -218

MTL · top performer

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

3Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Seth Jarvis

C · #24

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:36
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	11:30
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:19
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	10:39
P. DanaultC · #24	1	1	2	2	3	4	0	15:49
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	0	0	3	2	1	0	12:16
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	17:06
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:59
A. NewhookC · #15	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	17:45
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	2	1	3	4	1	1	0	16:41
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	3	2	4	2	1	2	18:30
A. TexierLW · #85	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	1	4	0	1	3	2	19:14
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	22:35
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	1	0	1	2	2	18:48
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	22:36
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	21:04
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	2	1	1	3	0	14:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	28	2	26	.929	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	-1	3	1	1	2	16:38
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-3	4	4	0	0	19:46
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	9:37
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:46
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	-2	1	3	1	0	17:05
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:45
S. JarvisC · #24	1	0	-1	5	2	0	0	15:31
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	2	2	1	2	12:46
E. RobinsonLW · #50	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	10:35
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	13:33
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	17:21
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	1	-2	2	5	1	2	14:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-3	2	0	2	0	18:58
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:41
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	21:17
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:25
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-4	0	2	3	0	20:49
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	20:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	21	5	16	.762	57:11

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

MTL leads series 1-0

May 22

MTL6@

CAR2today

May 23

MTL2@

CAR3

May 26

CAR3@

MTL2

May 28

CAR4@

MTL0

May 30

MTL1@

CAR6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+18036%

CAR-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat CAR 6-2. J. Slafkovsky led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	4	0	2	6
CAR	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · CAR won 1

MTL

CAR

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·19:20
Eric Robinson hit Mike Matheson
·
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·18:47
Jackson Blake hit Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·18:37
Shayne Gostisbehere Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·18:04
Logan Stankoven Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·17:58
K'Andre Miller shot blocked by Jayden Struble
·
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·17:32
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·17:32
Juraj Slafkovský Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (12)
·
MTL 6·CAR 2
3rd·17:24
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·16:49
Alexandre Carrier hit Alexander Nikishin
· ·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·16:30
Jaccob Slavin Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·16:20
Logan Stankoven shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·16:07
Jackson Blake Slap Shot Off Crossbar
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·15:40
Taylor Hall hit Noah Dobson
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·15:36
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·15:36
Icing
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·15:31
Giveaway by Seth Jarvis
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·15:12
Sean Walker Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·14:43
Jake Evans faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·14:43
Goalie Stopped
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·14:41
Jordan Martinook Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·14:28
Jordan Staal hit Alexandre Carrier
· ·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·14:23
Giveaway by Lane Hutson
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·14:21
Nikolaj Ehlers hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·13:32
Giveaway by K'Andre Miller
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·13:17
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·13:17
Puck in Benches
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·13:03
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
· ·
MTL 5·CAR 2
3rd·12:54
Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
· ·
MTL 5·CAR 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +180/CAR -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 6–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jackson Blake · CAR20:000.7766.7%52.9%20:00 TOI · 0.77 iXG · 66.7% CF · 52.9% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL17:000.6153.8%63.3%17:00 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 53.8% CF · 63.3% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR15:420.5463.2%47.7%15:42 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 63.2% CF · 47.7% xGF
Nick Suzuki · MTL18:360.5353.7%59.6%18:36 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 53.7% CF · 59.6% xGF
Nikolaj Ehlers · CAR17:480.3474.3%62.1%17:48 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 74.3% CF · 62.1% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR13:420.3385.7%80.6%13:42 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 85.7% CF · 80.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL26–2.929+0.7626–2 · .929 SV% · +0.76 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR16–5.762-2.3916–5 · .762 SV% · -2.39 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
60.7%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.7%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.7%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at CAR?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.0pp

best edge · MTL · DraftKings

MTL

★ best

+180DraftKings

edge +5.0pp · implied 34.3%

CAR

no live price

Book	MTL	CAR	Best edge
DraftKings	+180★	-218	+5.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.