Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

COL

55-16-11

VGK

39-26-17

NHLTue, May 26FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasVGK -110

COL · top performer

Gabriel Landeskog

LW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Cole Smith

RW · #22

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	8:50
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:24
N. KadriC · #91	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	18:42
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	11:48
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:15
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	1	2	3	1	2	19:48
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:30
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:10
M. NecasC · #88	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:06
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	19:18
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	11:05
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	11:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	18:39
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	16:37
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	27:30
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	14:16
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	-1	0	7	1	2	14:58
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	24:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	26	2	24	.923	57:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	15:36
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19:07
N. DowdC · #26	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	10:57
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	21:12
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	15:15
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	18:19
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	17:34
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:43
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	22:22
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	11:53
C. SmithRW · #22	1	0	1	2	3	0	2	9:20
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	15:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:31
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:08
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	20:26
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	11:28
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	23:56
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	23:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	21	1	20	.952	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK wins series 4-0

May 21

VGK4@

COL2

May 23

VGK3@

COL1

May 25

COL3@

VGK5

May 27

COL1@

VGK2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-11052%

VGK-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 2-1. C. Smith led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	0	0	1	1
VGK	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

COL won 0 · VGK won 1

COL

VGK

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·19:46
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·19:00
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·19:00
Icing
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:53
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:53
Icing
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:49
Brett Howden Backhand Wide Left
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:43
Nathan MacKinnon hit Noah Hanifin
·
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:40
Nathan MacKinnon Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:26
Martin Necas Snap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·17:57
Brock Nelson faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·17:57
Gabriel Landeskog Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (12), Nazem Kadri (6)
· ·
COL 1·VGK 2
3rd·16:05
Brent Burns hit Tomas Hertl
·
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·16:01
Sam Malinski Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·15:51
Keegan Kolesar shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·15:34
Sam Malinski Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·14:58
Martin Necas shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·14:38
Jack Eichel hit Jack Drury
·
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·14:25
Giveaway by Parker Kelly
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·14:25
Giveaway by Noah Hanifin
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·14:15
Jack Drury faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·14:15
Cole Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Coghlan (2), Nic Dowd (1)
· ·
COL 0·VGK 2
3rd·14:10
Josh Manson hit Keegan Kolesar
·
COL 0·VGK 1
3rd·14:05
Nic Dowd Tip-In Wide Left
·
COL 0·VGK 1
3rd·13:55
Ross Colton hit Mark Stone
·
COL 0·VGK 1
3rd·12:55
Giveaway by Mackenzie Blackwood
COL 0·VGK 1
3rd·12:26
Artturi Lehkonen Deflected saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 0·VGK 1
3rd·12:01
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Brock Nelson
· ·
COL 0·VGK 1
3rd·12:01
Puck in Benches
COL 0·VGK 1

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -110/VGK -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Colorado Avalanche, 2–1.

COL +1.5 cashed (VGK won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

William Karlsson · VGK17:480.6351.7%66.8%17:48 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 51.7% CF · 66.8% xGF
Cole Smith · VGK9:300.4950.0%51.7%9:30 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 50.0% CF · 51.7% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR19:240.4261.8%80.5%19:24 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 61.8% CF · 80.5% xGF
Nic Dowd · VGK11:120.3553.3%75.3%11:12 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 53.3% CF · 75.3% xGF
Brock Nelson · COL19:300.3343.2%56.7%19:30 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 43.2% CF · 56.7% xGF
Mitch Marner · VGK22:360.3361.1%70.8%22:36 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 61.1% CF · 70.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK20–1.952+0.5920–1 · .952 SV% · +0.59 GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood · COL24–2.923+0.5424–2 · .923 SV% · +0.54 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
52.6%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.6%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.6%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.6pp

best edge · VGK · DraftKings

COL

no live price

VGK

★ best

-110DraftKings

edge +2.6pp · implied 50.0%

Book	COL	VGK	Best edge
DraftKings	-110	-110★	+2.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.