Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1VGK
COL

COL

55-16-11

12
VGK

VGK

39-26-17

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, May 26FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasVGK -110

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Colorado Avalanche, 2–1.

COL +1.5 cashed (VGK won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Nazem Kadri

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Nic Dowd

Nic Dowd

C · #26

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
2
COL55-16-11VGK39-26-17
COL

COL

55-16-11

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

39-26-17

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

2

Playoff series

VGK wins series 4-0

May 21VGKVGK4@COLCOL2
May 23VGKVGK3@COLCOL1
May 25COLCOL3@VGKVGK5
May 27COLCOL1@VGKVGK2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-11052%
VGKVGK-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL0011
VGK1012

Period scoring

COL won 0 · VGK won 1

0
1

1

0
0

2

1
1

3

COL
VGK

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 1·VGK 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 1·VGK 2

  3. 3rd·19:46

    Giveaway by Jack Eichel

    COL 1·VGK 2

  4. 3rd·19:00

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    COL 1·VGK 2

  5. 3rd·19:00

    Icing

    COL 1·VGK 2

  6. 3rd·18:53

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·VGK 2

  7. 3rd·18:53

    Icing

    COL 1·VGK 2

  8. 3rd·18:49

    Brett Howden Backhand Wide Left

    COL 1·VGK 2

  9. 3rd·18:43

    Nathan MacKinnon hit Noah Hanifin

    ·

    COL 1·VGK 2

  10. 3rd·18:40

    Nathan MacKinnon Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 1·VGK 2

  11. 3rd·18:26

    Martin Necas Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 1·VGK 2

  12. 3rd·17:57

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against William Karlsson

    ·

    COL 1·VGK 2

  13. 3rd·17:57

    Gabriel Landeskog Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (12), Nazem Kadri (6)

    · ·

    COL 1·VGK 2

  14. 3rd·16:05

    Brent Burns hit Tomas Hertl

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 2

  15. 3rd·16:01

    Sam Malinski Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 2

  16. 3rd·15:51

    Keegan Kolesar shot blocked by Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 2

  17. 3rd·15:34

    Sam Malinski Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 2

  18. 3rd·14:58

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Brayden McNabb

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 2

  19. 3rd·14:38

    Jack Eichel hit Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 2

  20. 3rd·14:25

    Giveaway by Parker Kelly

    COL 0·VGK 2

  21. 3rd·14:25

    Giveaway by Noah Hanifin

    COL 0·VGK 2

  22. 3rd·14:15

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 2

  23. 3rd·14:15

    Cole Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Coghlan (2), Nic Dowd (1)

    · ·

    COL 0·VGK 2

  24. 3rd·14:10

    Josh Manson hit Keegan Kolesar

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 1

  25. 3rd·14:05

    Nic Dowd Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 1

  26. 3rd·13:55

    Ross Colton hit Mark Stone

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 1

  27. 3rd·12:55

    Giveaway by Mackenzie Blackwood

    COL 0·VGK 1

  28. 3rd·12:26

    Artturi Lehkonen Deflected saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 0·VGK 1

  29. 3rd·12:01

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    · ·

    COL 0·VGK 1

  30. 3rd·12:01

    Puck in Benches

    COL 0·VGK 1

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

21

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

2

24

Faceoffs W

29

11

Blocks

14

16

Giveaways

15

2

Takeaways

3

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -110/VGK -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR