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FINAL+2VGK
VGK

VGK

39-26-17

42
COL

COL

55-16-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 997 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, May 20FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -175

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 4–2.

VGK +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Pavel Dorofeyev

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Ross Colton

Ross Colton

C · #20

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
VGK39-26-17COL55-16-11
VGK

VGK

39-26-17

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

55-16-11

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Playoff series

VGK leads series 1-0

May 21VGKVGK4@COLCOL2today
May 23VGKVGK3@COLCOL1
May 25COLCOL3@VGKVGK5
May 27COLCOL1@VGKVGK2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK+14541%
COLCOL-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0224
COL0022

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · COL won 0

0
0

1

2
0

2

2
2

3

VGK
COL

Play-by-play · 370 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 4·COL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 4·COL 2

  3. 3rd·19:39

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    VGK 4·COL 2

  4. 3rd·19:39

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 4·COL 2

  5. 3rd·19:37

    Brent Burns Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 4·COL 2

  6. 3rd·19:33

    Sam Malinski shot blocked by Colton Sissons

    · ·

    VGK 4·COL 2

  7. 3rd·19:15

    Nicolas Roy faceoff won against William Karlsson

    ·

    VGK 4·COL 2

  8. 3rd·19:15

    Nic Dowd Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (15), Rasmus Andersson (4)

    · ·

    VGK 4·COL 2

  9. 3rd·19:09

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Right

    VGK 3·COL 2

  10. 3rd·19:06

    Devon Toews Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  11. 3rd·19:00

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  12. 3rd·19:00

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 3·COL 2

  13. 3rd·18:59

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  14. 3rd·18:55

    Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev

    VGK 3·COL 2

  15. 3rd·18:55

    Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Devon Toews

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  16. 3rd·18:36

    Giveaway by Brayden McNabb

    VGK 3·COL 2

  17. 3rd·18:09

    Giveaway by Devon Toews

    VGK 3·COL 2

  18. 3rd·17:58

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against William Karlsson

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  19. 3rd·17:58

    Icing

    VGK 3·COL 2

  20. 3rd·17:52

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Brayden McNabb

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  21. 3rd·17:49

    Artturi Lehkonen Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  22. 3rd·17:39

    William Karlsson faceoff won against Nicolas Roy

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  23. 3rd·17:39

    Gabriel Landeskog Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Devon Toews (7)

    · ·

    VGK 3·COL 2

  24. 3rd·17:20

    Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    VGK 3·COL 1

  25. 3rd·16:54

    Rasmus Andersson Snap Shot Wide Right

    VGK 3·COL 1

  26. 3rd·16:52

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  27. 3rd·16:52

    Shea Theodore High-sticking against Logan O'Connor

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  28. 3rd·16:37

    Giveaway by Parker Kelly

    VGK 3·COL 1

  29. 3rd·16:31

    Colton Sissons hit Sam Malinski

    · ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  30. 3rd·16:14

    Cole Smith hit Jack Drury

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

COL

Home

28

Shots

38

50.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

4

37

Faceoffs W

28

23

Blocks

11

24

Giveaways

9

7

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +145/COL -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Martin NecasCOL · C
    BURSTS7599
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    BURSTS7198

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-192

Close price

-192

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR