Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2VGK

VGK

39-26-17

COL

55-16-11

NHLWed, May 20FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -175

VGK · top performer

Brett Howden

C · #21

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Gabriel Landeskog

LW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	16:25
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:21
N. DowdC · #26	1	0	1	1	4	2	0	13:18
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	0	3	1	1	0	19:32
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	10:45
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	18:11
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	21:11
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	10:02
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	21:35
B. SaadLW · #20	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	8:10
C. SissonsC · #10	0	1	1	1	5	2	0	11:28
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	11:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	23:32
D. CoghlanD · #52	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:13
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	23:29
B. HuttonD · #17	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	10:01
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	1	1	5	3	0	25:42
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	1	5	0	7	2	27:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	38	2	36	.947	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	1	1	3	6	1	2	9:55
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:55
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	19:26
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:57
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	21:21
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	15:42
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	21:32
M. NecasC · #88	0	0	-2	3	2	0	0	23:41
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	-3	4	1	1	0	18:15
V. NichushkinRW · #13	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	13:39
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:16
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	12:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AhcanD · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	7:34
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	2	2	3	2	16:55
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:06
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	20:31
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	-1	2	5	2	0	19:02
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	27:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	27	3	24	.889	57:15

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 1-0

May 21

VGK4@

COL2today

May 23

VGK3@

COL1

May 25

COL3@

VGK5

May 27

COL1@

VGK2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+14541%

COL-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 4-2. B. Howden led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	2	2	4
COL	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · COL won 0

VGK

COL

Play-by-play · 370 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 4·COL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 4·COL 2
3rd·19:39
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
VGK 4·COL 2
3rd·19:39
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·COL 2
3rd·19:37
Brent Burns Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·COL 2
3rd·19:33
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Colton Sissons
· ·
VGK 4·COL 2
3rd·19:15
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
VGK 4·COL 2
3rd·19:15
Nic Dowd Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (15), Rasmus Andersson (4)
· ·
VGK 4·COL 2
3rd·19:09
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Right
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·19:06
Devon Toews Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·19:00
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·19:00
Goalie Stopped
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·18:59
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·18:55
Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·18:55
Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Devon Toews
·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·18:36
Giveaway by Brayden McNabb
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Devon Toews
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·17:58
Brock Nelson faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·17:58
Icing
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·17:52
Brent Burns shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·17:49
Artturi Lehkonen Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·17:39
William Karlsson faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·17:39
Gabriel Landeskog Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Devon Toews (7)
· ·
VGK 3·COL 2
3rd·17:20
Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot Wide Right
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·16:54
Rasmus Andersson Snap Shot Wide Right
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·16:52
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·16:52
Shea Theodore High-sticking against Logan O'Connor
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·16:37
Giveaway by Parker Kelly
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·16:31
Colton Sissons hit Sam Malinski
· ·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·16:14
Cole Smith hit Jack Drury
·
VGK 3·COL 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +145/COL -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 4–2.

VGK +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ross Colton · NSH9:480.5969.0%72.3%9:48 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 69.0% CF · 72.3% xGF
Nazem Kadri · COL19:360.4770.0%65.9%19:36 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 70.0% CF · 65.9% xGF
Valeri Nichushkin · CBJ13:480.4558.8%55.1%13:48 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 58.8% CF · 55.1% xGF
Brock Nelson · COL18:300.4263.3%55.0%18:30 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 63.3% CF · 55.0% xGF
Parker Kelly · COL9:120.4252.9%72.7%9:12 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 52.9% CF · 72.7% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR14:180.4146.2%55.7%14:18 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 46.2% CF · 55.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK36–2.947+2.2436–2 · .947 SV% · +2.24 GSAx
Scott Wedgewood · COL24–3.889-0.7424–3 · .889 SV% · -0.74 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
64.7%
P(COL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.7%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.7%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-192

Close price

-192

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.8pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

VGK

no live price

COL

★ best

-175DraftKings

edge +3.8pp · implied 60.9%

Book	VGK	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	+145	-175★	+3.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.