NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ANA

ANA

43-33-6

VGK

39-26-17

NHLWed, May 6FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasVGK -155

ANA · top performer

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	21:03
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	16:42
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:07
J. HarkinsC · #24	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	9:44
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	1	2	3	1	2	8:50
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	19:27
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	19:46
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	1	1	0	2	1	2	14:14
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:03
T. TerryRW · #19	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	20:18
J. VielLW · #28	0	1	1	0	4	0	2	9:15
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	13:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	1	2	3	1	0	24:53
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:27
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:31
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:23
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	19:55
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	2	2	5	3	0	22:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	22	1	21	.955	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	5	8	0	0	17:33
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:20
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	16:50
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	-1	2	0	1	4	19:05
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	11:52
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	-3	2	5	0	0	15:05
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:19
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	8:57
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-3	2	1	0	2	16:31
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:18
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	13:48
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	-1	1	4	0	0	17:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-2	3	1	2	0	24:41
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	4	0	20:22
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	11:03
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	11:31
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	22:25
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	24:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	27	2	25	.926	59:36

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

May 5

ANA1@

VGK3

May 7

ANA3@

VGK1today

May 9

VGK6@

ANA2

May 11

VGK3@

ANA4

May 13

ANA2@

VGK3

May 15

VGK5@

ANA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+13043%

VGK-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat VGK 3-1. L. Carlsson led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	1	2	3
VGK	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · VGK won 0

ANA

VGK

Play-by-play · 347 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 3·VGK 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 3·VGK 1
3rd·19:54
Tim Washe faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
ANA 3·VGK 1
3rd·19:54
Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (9), Shea Theodore (3)
· ·
ANA 3·VGK 1
3rd·19:45
Tim Washe faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·19:45
Ross Johnston High-sticking against Colton Sissons
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·19:11
Keegan Kolesar hit Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·19:00
Jacob Trouba hit Tomas Hertl
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:55
Giveaway by Jeffrey Viel
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:25
Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Pavel Mintyukov
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:18
Giveaway by Pavel Mintyukov
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·17:22
Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·17:20
Colton Sissons Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:55
Giveaway by Jacob Trouba
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:51
Tim Washe faceoff won against Keegan Kolesar
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:51
Goalie Stopped
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:49
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:44
Keegan Kolesar hit John Carlson
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:30
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:30
Jansen Harkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none
ANA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:18
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Troy Terry
·
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:50
Giveaway by Leo Carlsson
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:34
Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by Chris Kreider
·
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:31
Ivan Barbashev hit Pavel Mintyukov
·
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:19
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:12
Ivan Barbashev hit Cutter Gauthier
·
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:03
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:00
Giveaway by Nic Dowd
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·14:46
Beckett Sennecke Snap Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 2·VGK 0
3rd·14:22
Jeffrey Viel hit Nic Dowd
·
ANA 2·VGK 0

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +130/VGK -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 3–1.

ANA +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Leo Carlsson · ANA21:060.6171.0%66.7%21:06 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 71.0% CF · 66.7% xGF
Cutter Gauthier · ANA16:360.5171.4%82.8%16:36 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 71.4% CF · 82.8% xGF
Jack Eichel · VGK19:180.4757.5%55.7%19:18 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 57.5% CF · 55.7% xGF
Ivan Barbashev · VGK17:240.4764.1%61.4%17:24 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 64.1% CF · 61.4% xGF
Troy Terry · ANA20:360.4175.9%68.3%20:36 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 75.9% CF · 68.3% xGF
Beckett Sennecke · ANA11:060.3378.6%81.0%11:06 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 78.6% CF · 81.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Lukas Dostal · ANA21–1.955+1.3421–1 · .955 SV% · +1.34 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK25–2.926+0.8725–2 · .926 SV% · +0.87 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL

Canadiens2Sabres4Final