NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

19:28 - 2NDTied

ANA

43-33-6

VGK

39-26-17

Box score

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
33%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Receipts

Player props

3 sub-models, blended.

3 sub-models, blended.

Every player. Every line.