Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at CAR?

The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

OTT

44-27-11

CAR

53-22-7

NHLMon, Apr 20FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -148

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

1Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Jordan Martinook

LW · #48

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/2OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	24:43
D. BathersonRW · #19	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	27:33
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	15:04
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	27:25
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	12:24
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	21:34
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	1	3	4	0	0	27:04
R. GreigC · #71	0	1	1	4	6	5	0	27:09
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	3	2	3	0	28:17
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	29:05
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	-2	6	1	1	2	28:17
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-2	1	0	4	0	40:50
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	0	0	7	1	2	15:24
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	31:03
J. SandersonD · #85	0	2	2	2	3	5	0	43:06
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	39:01
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	13:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	49	3	46	.939	93:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	27:03
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	0	4	1	1	2	25:08
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	12	0	0	15:37
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	24:20
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	0	4	1	0	0	21:56
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	15:48
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	2	3	2	0	26:04
J. MartinookLW · #48	1	0	0	7	2	0	0	25:37
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:03
J. StaalC · #11	0	1	2	5	7	1	0	27:22
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	-1	5	0	1	0	24:26
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-2	7	5	2	4	25:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	31:10
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	24:59
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	1	1	1	5	0	34:56
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	28:19
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-1	2	2	3	0	33:52
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	2	1	5	3	2	33:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	39	2	37	.949	93:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 2-0

Apr 18

OTT0@

CAR2

Apr 20

OTT2@

CAR3today

Apr 23

CAR2@

OTT1

Apr 25

CAR4@

OTT2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT+12445%

CAR-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 72 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat OTT 3-2. J. Martinook led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
OTT	0	2	0	0	0	2
CAR	1	1	0	0	1	3

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · CAR won 2

OTT

CAR

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period

event

player

2nd OT·13:53
Game End
OTT 2·CAR 3
2nd OT·13:53
End of 2nd OT
OTT 2·CAR 3
2nd OT·13:53
Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (1), K'Andre Miller (1)
· ·
OTT 2·CAR 3
2nd OT·13:43
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·13:23
Taylor Hall Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·13:21
Taylor Hall Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·13:12
Jake Sanderson Backhand Wide Left
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·12:47
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·12:43
Logan Stankoven shot blocked by Dennis Gilbert
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·12:35
Giveaway by Lars Eller
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·12:26
Shayne Gostisbehere hit Lars Eller
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·12:24
Lars Eller Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·11:56
Giveaway by Alexander Nikishin
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·11:42
Lars Eller faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·11:42
Puck in Netting
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·11:40
Shane Pinto shot blocked by Andrei Svechnikov
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·11:23
Shane Pinto Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·11:21
Michael Amadio Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:52
Jordan Spence hit Sebastian Aho
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:42
Sean Walker Snap Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:41
Giveaway by Jake Sanderson
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:37
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Tim Stützle
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:37
Icing
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:12
Jordan Spence Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:09
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:09
Puck in Benches
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·10:00
Giveaway by Jordan Martinook
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·9:42
William Carrier hit Nikolas Matinpalo
·
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·9:36
Giveaway by Claude Giroux
OTT 2·CAR 2
2nd OT·9:31
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 2·CAR 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT +124/CAR -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Ottawa Senators, 3–2 in overtime.

OTT +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
63.4%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.4%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.4%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at CAR?: The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL