NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3ANA

EDM

41-30-11

ANA

43-33-6

NHLThu, Apr 30FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-1VegasEDM -125

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Edmonton Oilers, 5–2.

ANA +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

Connor Murphy

D · #5

1Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Troy Terry

RW · #19

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DachC · #34	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	6:21
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:07
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	24:01
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	-3	2	4	0	0	20:51
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	1	0	1	3	1	0	19:49
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	4:28
C. McDavidC · #97	0	0	-3	3	1	0	0	24:49
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	-2	2	0	1	2	15:57
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	1	0	-1	3	5	0	0	18:46
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:25
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	5:14
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	0	-3	1	0	2	0	24:11
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	16:22
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:09
C. MurphyD · #5	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	20:33
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	25:49
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	19:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	30	4	26	.867	56:31

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	2	3	2	2	1	0	17:35
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	14:39
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	15:48
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:43
C. KreiderLW · #20	1	2	3	2	2	0	0	16:15
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	10:36
R. PoehlingC · #25	1	0	0	3	1	3	0	15:32
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:08
T. TerryRW · #19	1	2	3	5	1	1	0	18:08
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	-1	1	7	0	0	15:25
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	13:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	1	-1	2	0	2	0	24:29
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:07
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:01
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	3	3	0	2	0	27:05
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	2	2	4	0	21:52
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:45
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	3	1	3	1	0	24:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	27	2	25	.926	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

ANA wins series 4-2

Apr 21

ANA3@

EDM4

Apr 23

ANA6@

EDM4

Apr 25

EDM4@

ANA6

Apr 27

EDM3@

ANA4

Apr 29

ANA1@

EDM4

May 1

EDM2@

ANA5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM-12556%

ANA+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 74 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

EDM

C. Murphy

Top skater

1 G · 4 SOG

C. Ingram

Goaltender

26 SV · 4 GA · .867

ANA

T. Terry

Top skater

1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG

L. Dostal

Goaltender

25 SV · 2 GA · .926

How it ended

ANA beat EDM 5-2. T. Terry led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	1	0	1	2
ANA	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

EDM won 0 · ANA won 2

EDM

ANA

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·19:18
Ryan Poehling Wrist Shot Wide Right
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:49
Tim Washe faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:49
Goalie Stopped
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:48
Evan Bouchard Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:45
Giveaway by Jackson LaCombe
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Alex Killorn
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:28
Connor McDavid shot blocked by Mikael Granlund
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:21
Leon Draisaitl Slap Shot Wide Left
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:15
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Alex Killorn
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:12
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:12
Goalie Stopped
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:11
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·18:04
Tim Washe hit Connor McDavid
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·17:58
Ian Moore Poke Wide Right
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·17:51
Tim Washe faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·17:51
Goalie Stopped
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·17:49
Connor Murphy Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·17:45
Jack Roslovic Wrist Shot Short
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·17:26
Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·17:26
Leo Carlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (4), Troy Terry (5)
· ·
EDM 2·ANA 5
3rd·17:18
Giveaway by Connor McDavid
EDM 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:13
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Leo Carlsson
·
EDM 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:55
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
EDM 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:55
Puck in Benches
EDM 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:30
Connor McDavid Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:03
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
EDM 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:03
Puck in Netting
EDM 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:01
Matt Savoie Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
EDM 2·ANA 4

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -125/ANA +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 29 skaters with EDGE

Connor McDavidEDM · C
iXG43.699+
John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
SHOT MPH96.199+
Jake WalmanEDM · D
SHOT MPH99.599
Zach HymanEDM · LW
iXG35.299

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ryan Poehling · ANA15:420.4833.3%34.9%15:42 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 33.3% CF · 34.9% xGF
Troy Terry · ANA18:240.4643.8%51.0%18:24 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 43.8% CF · 51.0% xGF
Zach Hyman · EDM21:060.3964.3%63.8%21:06 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 64.3% CF · 63.8% xGF
Connor McDavid · EDM25:000.3552.5%44.7%25:00 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 52.5% CF · 44.7% xGF
Vasily Podkolzin · EDM18:480.3256.5%57.8%18:48 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 56.5% CF · 57.8% xGF
Cutter Gauthier · ANA14:420.3039.4%37.9%14:42 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 39.4% CF · 37.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Lukas Dostal · ANA25–2.926-0.2425–2 · .926 SV% · -0.24 GSAx
Connor Ingram · EDM26–4.867-1.9126–4 · .867 SV% · -1.91 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(ANA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit