Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at NYR?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5NYR

CHI

27-33-13

NYR

29-35-9

NHLFri, Mar 27FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYR -175

CHI · top performer

Nick Lardis

LW · #76

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

J.T. Miller

LW · #8

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	20:32
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	17:06
S. BoisvertC · #12	0	0	-1	0	2	0	7	10:05
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	13:19
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	12:59
A. FrondellC · #15	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	20:50
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	17:27
N. LardisLW · #76	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:57
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:14
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:33
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	11:51
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	13:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	18:05
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	-2	2	1	1	2	17:36
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:44
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-2	5	2	3	0	22:33
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:35
A. VlasicD · #72	0	1	-2	0	0	1	4	19:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SoderblomG · #40	38	6	32	.842	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	2	0	2	3	2	0	0	11:00
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	1	2	4	2	2	0	9:47
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	1	0	1	4	0	2	15:31
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	2	3	2	1	0	16:46
A. LafreniereLW · #13	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:34
J.T. MillerLW · #8	1	2	2	5	3	1	0	17:00
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:28
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	10:05
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	15:28
A. SykoraLW · #38	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:56
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:33
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	15:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	1	2	1	2	1	5	17:41
D. FortescueD · #45	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	17:23
A. FoxD · #23	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	21:38
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	23:34
M. RobertsonD · #29	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	15:53
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	1	3	1	0	1	0	21:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. GarandG · #33	28	1	27	.964	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 11

NYR0@

CHI3

Mar 27

CHI1@

NYR6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+14541%

NYR-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 96 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat CHI 6-1. J.T. Miller led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	1	0	0	1
NYR	1	3	2	6

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · NYR won 2

CHI

NYR

Play-by-play · 326 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:53
Drew Fortescue Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:53
Giveaway by Wyatt Kaiser
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:48
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Adam Sykora
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:48
Goalie Stopped
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:45
Drew Fortescue Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:41
Adam Sykora faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:41
Goalie Stopped
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:40
Tye Kartye Deflected saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·19:15
Taylor Raddysh Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·18:59
Giveaway by Sam Rinzel
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·18:55
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Jonny Brodzinski
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·18:55
Off-side
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·18:22
Giveaway by Ilya Mikheyev
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·17:31
Ethan Del Mastro hit Jaroslav Chmelar
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·17:14
Artyom Levshunov hit Matthew Robertson
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:23
Jonny Brodzinski faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:23
Sacha Boisvert Fighting against Will Borgen
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:23
Will Borgen Fighting against Sacha Boisvert
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:23
Alex Vlasic Roughing against Will Cuylle
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:12
Artyom Levshunov Wrist Shot saved by Dylan Garand
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:07
Sacha Boisvert faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:07
Puck in Netting
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:00
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Sacha Boisvert
·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·16:00
Jonny Brodzinski Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (10), Drew Fortescue (1)
· ·
CHI 1·NYR 6
3rd·15:27
Anton Frondell shot blocked by Vladislav Gavrikov
·
CHI 1·NYR 5
3rd·15:08
Vladislav Gavrikov Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
CHI 1·NYR 5
3rd·14:58
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
CHI 1·NYR 5
3rd·14:58
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CHI 1·NYR 5

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CHI +145/NYR -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Chicago Blackhawks, 6–1.

NYR -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

J.T. Miller · NYR17:121.1561.5%72.0%17:12 TOI · 1.15 iXG · 61.5% CF · 72.0% xGF
Taylor Raddysh · NYR10:060.7375.0%92.5%10:06 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 75.0% CF · 92.5% xGF
Connor Bedard · CHI20:480.5342.0%40.0%20:48 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 42.0% CF · 40.0% xGF
Tye Kartye · NYR16:480.4551.5%62.1%16:48 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 51.5% CF · 62.1% xGF
Ryan Greene · CHI17:420.3837.8%40.3%17:42 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 37.8% CF · 40.3% xGF
Landon Slaggert · CHI11:540.3636.4%34.9%11:54 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 36.4% CF · 34.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dylan Garand · NYR27–1.964+1.6427–1 · .964 SV% · +1.64 GSAx
Arvid Soderblom · CHI32–6.842-1.9432–6 · .842 SV% · -1.94 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
58.1%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.1%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.1%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at NYR?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Chicago BlackhawksNew York Rangers

Elsewhere in the NHL

Red Wings5Sabres2Final