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FINAL+1TB
BOS

BOS

32-20-4

56
TB

TB

35-14-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Feb 1FinalSeriesTB leads series 2-0VegasTB -218

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Boston Bruins, 6–5.

BOS +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Morgan Geekie

Morgan Geekie

C · #39

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Nikita Kucherov

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
5
6
BOS32-20-4TB35-14-4
BOS

BOS

32-20-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

35-14-4

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

25

PIM

15

Season series

TB leads series 2-0

Oct 13TBTB4@BOSBOS3
Feb 1BOSBOS5@TBTB6today
Apr 4BOSBOS1@TBTB3
Apr 11TBTB2@BOSBOS1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+18036%
TBTB-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat BOS 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
BOS320005
TB131016

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · TB won 3

3
1

1

2
3

2

0
1

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

BOS
TB

Play-by-play · 373 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    BOS 0·TB 1

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    BOS 0·TB 1

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    BOS 0·TB 1

  4. SO·0:00

    David Pastrnak Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    BOS 0·TB 1

  5. SO·0:00

    Jake Guentzel Goal Snap Shot

    BOS 0·TB 1

  6. SO·0:00

    Fraser Minten Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    BOS 0·TB 1

  7. SO·0:00

    Nikita Kucherov failed shot attempt on Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    BOS 0·TB 1

  8. SO·0:00

    Casey Mittelstadt failed shot attempt on Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    BOS 0·TB 1

  9. SO·0:00

    Gage Goncalves Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    BOS 0·TB 1

  10. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    BOS 0·TB 1

  11. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    BOS 5·TB 5

  12. OT·4:59

    Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Jake Guentzel

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  13. OT·4:59

    Goalie Stopped

    BOS 5·TB 5

  14. OT·4:58

    Brandon Hagel Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  15. OT·4:35

    Nick Paul faceoff won against Sean Kuraly

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  16. OT·4:35

    Timeout - Home

    BOS 5·TB 5

  17. OT·4:35

    Hampus Lindholm Hooking against Nick Paul

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  18. OT·4:31

    Fraser Minten faceoff won against Nick Paul

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  19. OT·4:31

    Goalie Stopped

    BOS 5·TB 5

  20. OT·4:27

    Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  21. OT·4:07

    J.J. Moser Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  22. OT·4:07

    Jake Guentzel Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  23. OT·4:01

    Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Casey Mittelstadt

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  24. OT·4:01

    Goalie Stopped

    BOS 5·TB 5

  25. OT·3:59

    Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  26. OT·3:47

    Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Morgan Geekie

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  27. OT·3:47

    Icing

    BOS 5·TB 5

  28. OT·3:40

    Giveaway by Hampus Lindholm

    BOS 5·TB 5

  29. OT·3:37

    Declan Carlile shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

  30. OT·3:13

    Fraser Minten shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh

    ·

    BOS 5·TB 5

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

TB

Home

34

Shots

46

33.3

PCT

37.5

25

PIM

15

29

Faceoffs W

39

19

Blocks

12

14

Giveaways

19

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·BOS +180/TB -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
    SKATE MPH23.092
  • Morgan GeekieBOS · C
    SHOT MPH88.989
  • Jonathan AspirotBOS · D
    SHOT MPH94.081
  • Tanner JeannotBOS · LW
    SHOT MPH86.679
  • Mark KastelicBOS · C
    SKATE MPH22.477

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

TB vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Nikita KucherovTB
    3.5± 2.3high
  • David PastrnakBOS
    3.2± 2.2high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    3.2± 1.4high

Goals

  • Morgan GeekieBOS
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Jake GuentzelTB
    0.4± 0.5high

Points

  • David PastrnakBOS
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Nikita KucherovTB
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR