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FINAL+2BUF
BUF

BUF

28-17-5

42
MTL

MTL

28-16-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 22FinalSeriesBUF leads series 2-1VegasMTL -120

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–2.

BUF +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Nick Suzuki

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
BUF28-17-5MTL28-16-7
BUF

BUF

28-17-5

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

28-16-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

8

Playoff series

May 6MTLMTL2@BUFBUF4
May 8MTLMTL5@BUFBUF1
May 10BUFBUF2@MTLMTL6
May 12BUFBUF3@MTLMTL2
May 14MTLMTL6@BUFBUF3
May 17BUFBUF8@MTLMTL3
May 18MTLMTL3@BUFBUF2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+10050%
MTLMTL-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat MTL 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF2114
MTL0202

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · MTL won 1

2
0

1

1
2

2

1
0

3

BUF
MTL

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  3. 3rd·19:54

    Ryan McLeod Snap Shot Wide Left

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  4. 3rd·19:39

    Noah Dobson Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  5. 3rd·19:37

    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Noah Dobson hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  7. 3rd·19:16

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  8. 3rd·19:16

    Timeout - Home

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  9. 3rd·19:16

    Peyton Krebs Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (26)

    ·

    BUF 4·MTL 2

  10. 3rd·19:11

    Lane Hutson Slap Shot Short

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  11. 3rd·18:40

    Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  12. 3rd·17:46

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  13. 3rd·17:46

    Video Review

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  14. 3rd·17:46

    On-Ice Official

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  15. 3rd·17:46

    TV Timeout

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  16. 3rd·17:20

    Kirby Dach shot blocked by Lane Hutson

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  17. 3rd·17:06

    Alex Tuch Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  18. 3rd·16:44

    Alex Tuch hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  19. 3rd·16:37

    Giveaway by Phillip Danault

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  20. 3rd·16:02

    Mattias Samuelsson hit Alexandre Carrier

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  21. 3rd·15:41

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  22. 3rd·15:41

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  23. 3rd·15:39

    Lane Hutson Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  24. 3rd·15:15

    Ivan Demidov hit Owen Power

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  25. 3rd·14:53

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  26. 3rd·14:53

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  27. 3rd·14:51

    Alexandre Carrier Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  28. 3rd·14:15

    Noah Dobson Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  29. 3rd·14:05

    Takeaway by Mike Matheson

    BUF 3·MTL 2

  30. 3rd·13:50

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    BUF 3·MTL 2

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

17

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

8

20

Faceoffs W

36

18

Blocks

16

9

Giveaways

12

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +100/MTL -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR