Jan 24, 26sim 99
25
12(H)0
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1MTL
MIN
28-14-9
34
MTL
28-15-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ontreal Canadiens held off Minnesota Wild, 4–3.
MIN +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Kirill Kaprizov
LW · #97
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
MTL · top performer
Ivan Demidov
RW · #93
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
MIN28-14-9
34
MTL28-15-7
MIN28-14-9MTL28-15-7
MIN
28-14-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
MTL
28-15-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
8
Season series
MTL leads series 1-0
Jan 21MIN3@MTL4today
MIN3@MTL4todayFeb 3MTL3@MIN4
MTL3@MIN4Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MTL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+12045%MTL-14259%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MTL beat MIN 4-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| MTL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Period scoring
MIN won 0 · MTL won 1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
3
MIN
MTL
Play-by-play · 315 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 3·MTL 4
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·MTL 4
- 3rd·19:57
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
MIN 3·MTL 4
- 3rd·19:53
Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
MIN 3·MTL 4
- 3rd·19:45
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MIN 3·MTL 4
- 3rd·19:45
Cole Caufield Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (40), Lane Hutson (43)
· ·
MIN 3·MTL 4
- 3rd·19:14
Takeaway by Cole Caufield
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·19:08
Brock Faber hit Phillip Danault
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·18:54
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·18:54
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·18:52
Lane Hutson Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·18:48
Giveaway by Yakov Trenin
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·18:46
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Yakov Trenin
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·18:32
Danila Yurov faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·18:32
Icing
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·17:58
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·17:58
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·17:56
Joseph Veleno Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·17:43
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Joseph Veleno
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·17:43
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·17:41
Mike Matheson Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·17:21
Mike Matheson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·17:10
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Vincent Hinostroza
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·16:52
Giveaway by Nico Sturm
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·16:05
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·16:05
Icing
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·15:48
Yakov Trenin faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·15:48
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·15:46
Mats Zuccarello Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
- 3rd·15:37
Joseph Veleno hit Jake Middleton
·
MIN 3·MTL 3
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
MTL
Home
20
Shots
33
50.0
PCT
0.0
6
PIM
8
29
Faceoffs W
31
22
Blocks
12
16
Giveaways
16
2
Takeaways
5
Betting line
MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +120/MTL -142
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
Brock FaberMIN · DBURSTS2799+
Lane HutsonMTL · DDIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RWBURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · DDIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RWDIST MI56.699
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · MTL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MTL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 123 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Matt BoldyMIN3.8± 1.9high
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN3.3± 1.6high
- Ryan HartmanMIN3.0± 2.3high
Goals
- Matt BoldyMIN0.5± 0.7high
- Cole CaufieldMTL0.5± 0.5high
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Quinn HughesMIN1.3± 1.1high
- Kirill KaprizovMIN1.2± 1.1high
- Mats ZuccarelloMIN1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands