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FINAL+4DAL
BOS

BOS

28-20-2

26
DAL

DAL

28-13-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 20FinalSeriesDAL leads series 1-0VegasDAL -135

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Boston Bruins, 6–2.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Morgan Geekie

Morgan Geekie

C · #39

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Justin Hryckowian

Justin Hryckowian

C · #49

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
6
BOS28-20-2DAL28-13-9
BOS

BOS

28-20-2

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

28-13-9

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

9

Season series

DAL leads series 1-0

Jan 21BOSBOS2@DALDAL6today
Mar 31DALDAL3@BOSBOS6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+11447%
DALDAL-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat BOS 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BOS0022
DAL2226

Period scoring

BOS won 0 · DAL won 2

0
2

1

0
2

2

2
2

3

BOS
DAL

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Colin Blackwell

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  4. 3rd·19:53

    Takeaway by Fraser Minten

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  5. 3rd·19:42

    Fraser Minten shot blocked by Colin Blackwell

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  6. 3rd·19:40

    Morgan Geekie faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  7. 3rd·19:40

    Icing

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  8. 3rd·19:34

    Mark Kastelic hit Matt Duchene

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  9. 3rd·19:08

    Colin Blackwell hit Nikita Zadorov

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  10. 3rd·19:02

    Nikita Zadorov hit Colin Blackwell

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  11. 3rd·19:01

    Colin Blackwell Snap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  12. 3rd·18:47

    Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Radek Faksa

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  13. 3rd·18:47

    Puck in Netting

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  14. 3rd·18:42

    Jason Robertson Backhand saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    · ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  15. 3rd·18:35

    Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Roope Hintz

    · ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  16. 3rd·18:35

    Goalie Puck Frozen - played from beyond center

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  17. 3rd·18:31

    Nikita Zadorov Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  18. 3rd·18:27

    Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  19. 3rd·18:00

    Mark Kastelic hit Oskar Bäck

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  20. 3rd·17:56

    Mason Lohrei Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  21. 3rd·17:44

    Ilya Lyubushkin hit Alex Steeves

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  22. 3rd·17:39

    Sean Kuraly hit Alexander Petrovic

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  23. 3rd·17:37

    Alex Steeves hit Ilya Lyubushkin

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  24. 3rd·17:23

    Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Mark Kastelic

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  25. 3rd·17:23

    On-Ice Official

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  26. 3rd·17:21

    Viktor Arvidsson Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  27. 3rd·17:11

    Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Jonathan Aspirot

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  28. 3rd·17:04

    Charlie McAvoy hit Sam Steel

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  29. 3rd·16:47

    Viktor Arvidsson Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

  30. 3rd·15:39

    Colin Blackwell faceoff won against Fraser Minten

    ·

    BOS 2·DAL 6

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

18

Shots

37

50.0

PCT

66.7

11

PIM

9

21

Faceoffs W

39

17

Blocks

12

16

Giveaways

13

3

Takeaways

8

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·BOS +114/DAL -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998
  • Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
    SKATE MPH23.092
  • Morgan GeekieBOS · C
    SHOT MPH88.989
  • Jonathan AspirotBOS · D
    SHOT MPH94.081
  • Tanner JeannotBOS · LW
    SHOT MPH86.679

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    3.9± 2.0high
  • David PastrnakBOS
    3.2± 2.2high
  • Matthew PoitrasBOS
    2.7± 2.8low

Goals

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Morgan GeekieBOS
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    0.6± 0.7high

Points

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Matt DucheneDAL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • David PastrnakBOS
    1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR