Live · 1
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1DET
DET

DET

31-16-4

21
TOR

TOR

24-17-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 21FinalSeriesDET wins series 4-0VegasTOR -125

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.

DET +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Dylan Larkin

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

TOR
Calle Jarnkrok

Calle Jarnkrok

C · #19

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
1
DET31-16-4TOR24-17-9
DET

DET

31-16-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TOR

TOR

24-17-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

DET wins series 4-0

Oct 11TORTOR3@DETDET6
Oct 13DETDET3@TORTOR2
Dec 29TORTOR2@DETDET3
Jan 22DETDET2@TORTOR1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10549%
TORTOR-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat TOR 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
DET10012
TOR10001

Period scoring

DET won 1 · TOR won 0

1
1

1

0
0

2

0
0

3

1
0

OT

DET
TOR

Play-by-play · 350 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·3:08

    Game End

    DET 2·TOR 1

  2. OT·3:08

    End of OT

    DET 2·TOR 1

  3. OT·3:08

    Dylan Larkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (27)

    ·

    DET 2·TOR 1

  4. OT·3:05

    Takeaway by Moritz Seider

    DET 1·TOR 1

  5. OT·2:56

    John Tavares faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  6. OT·2:56

    Puck in Netting

    DET 1·TOR 1

  7. OT·2:54

    Max Domi shot blocked by Patrick Kane

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  8. OT·2:21

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  9. OT·2:13

    Marco Kasper Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  10. OT·1:51

    Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  11. OT·1:34

    Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  12. OT·1:30

    Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  13. OT·1:26

    Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson

    DET 1·TOR 1

  14. OT·0:42

    Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  15. OT·0:24

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  16. OT·0:24

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 1·TOR 1

  17. OT·0:21

    Lucas Raymond Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  18. OT·0:00

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  19. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    DET 1·TOR 1

  20. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 1·TOR 1

  21. 3rd·19:46

    Giveaway by Albert Johansson

    DET 1·TOR 1

  22. 3rd·19:19

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  23. 3rd·19:19

    Puck in Crowd

    DET 1·TOR 1

  24. 3rd·19:02

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Alex DeBrincat

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  25. 3rd·19:02

    Puck in Crowd

    DET 1·TOR 1

  26. 3rd·18:41

    Michael Rasmussen Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  27. 3rd·18:29

    Simon Edvinsson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  28. 3rd·18:27

    Michael Rasmussen faceoff won against Auston Matthews

    ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

  29. 3rd·18:27

    Puck in Benches

    DET 1·TOR 1

  30. 3rd·18:15

    Marco Kasper shot blocked by Troy Stecher

    · ·

    DET 1·TOR 1

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

41

Shots

31

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

32

Faceoffs W

33

12

Blocks

16

16

Giveaways

16

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +105/TOR -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Dylan LarkinDET · C
    DIST MI243.094

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR