Dec 30, 25sim 98
305
37(H)2
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1MIN
MIN
26-11-8
32
SEA
20-14-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
innesota Wild went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.
SEA +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Kirill Kaprizov
LW · #97
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
SEA · top performer
Matty Beniers
C · #10
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final / OT
MIN26-11-8
32
SEA20-14-8
MIN26-11-8SEA20-14-8
MIN
26-11-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
SEA
20-14-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
2
Season series
MIN leads series 2-0
Dec 9MIN4@SEA1
MIN4@SEA1Jan 9MIN3@SEA2today
MIN3@SEA2todayApr 8SEA2@MIN5
SEA2@MIN5Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-17063%SEA+14241%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 12 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat SEA 3-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · SEA won 1
2
0
1
0
0
2
0
2
3
1
0
OT
MIN
SEA
Play-by-play · 314 plays
period
event
player
- OT·2:09
Game End
MIN 3·SEA 2
- OT·2:09
End of OT
MIN 3·SEA 2
- OT·2:09
Mats Zuccarello Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (27), Brock Faber (16)
· ·
MIN 3·SEA 2
- OT·1:05
Takeaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 2·SEA 2
- OT·0:57
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- OT·0:56
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- OT·0:44
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- OT·0:40
Giveaway by Chandler Stephenson
MIN 2·SEA 2
- OT·0:34
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- OT·0:26
Matt Boldy Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- OT·0:00
Matt Boldy faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·18:53
Takeaway by Brock Faber
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·18:47
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·18:13
Vince Dunn shot blocked by Daemon Hunt
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·18:05
Kirill Kaprizov hit Vince Dunn
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·17:48
Jacob Melanson hit Daemon Hunt
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Ryker Evans
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·17:07
Ryker Evans shot blocked by Jonas Brodin
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·16:57
Ben Meyers faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·16:57
Goalie Stopped
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·16:55
Matty Beniers Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·16:51
Yakov Trenin hit Cale Fleury
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·16:34
Giveaway by Cale Fleury
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·16:28
Giveaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·16:09
Marcus Johansson Backhand Wide Left
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·15:53
Quinn Hughes Slap Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·15:46
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
- 3rd·15:31
Matt Boldy shot blocked by Freddy Gaudreau
·
MIN 2·SEA 2
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
34
Shots
28
0.0
PCT
33.3
6
PIM
2
23
Faceoffs W
34
9
Blocks
19
16
Giveaways
13
6
Takeaways
5
Betting line
MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·MIN -170/SEA +142
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Brock FaberMIN · DBURSTS2799+- Matty BeniersSEA · CDIST MI267.798
Matt BoldyMIN · LWSHOT MPH92.897
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · CSKATE MPH23.696
Jared McCannSEA · LWSHOT MPH94.496
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+142
Close price
+142
Open no-vig
39.6%
Close no-vig
39.6%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
SEA vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 132 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Matt BoldyMIN3.8± 1.9high
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN3.3± 1.6high
- Ryan HartmanMIN3.0± 2.3high
Goals
- Matt BoldyMIN0.5± 0.7high
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN0.4± 0.7high
- Kirill KaprizovMIN0.4± 0.5high
Points
- Quinn HughesMIN1.3± 1.1high
- Kirill KaprizovMIN1.2± 1.1high
- Mats ZuccarelloMIN1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands